GitHub - lonelyobserver0/mvrv-regime-monitor · GitHub
/" data-turbo-transient="true" />
Skip to content
Search or jump to...
Search code, repositories, users, issues, pull requests...
-->
Search
Clear
Search syntax tips
Provide feedback
--><br>We read every piece of feedback, and take your input very seriously.
Include my email address so I can be contacted
Cancel
Submit feedback
Saved searches
Use saved searches to filter your results more quickly
-->
Name
Query
To see all available qualifiers, see our documentation.
Cancel
Create saved search
Sign in
/;ref_cta:Sign up;ref_loc:header logged out"}"<br>Sign up
Appearance settings
Resetting focus
You signed in with another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.<br>You signed out in another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.<br>You switched accounts on another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.
Dismiss alert
{{ message }}
lonelyobserver0
mvrv-regime-monitor
Public
Notifications<br>You must be signed in to change notification settings
Fork
Star
main
BranchesTags
Go to file
CodeOpen more actions menu
Folders and files<br>NameNameLast commit message<br>Last commit date<br>Latest commit
History<br>4 Commits<br>4 Commits
.gitignore
.gitignore
LICENSE
LICENSE
README.md
README.md
mvrv_regime_monitor.pine
mvrv_regime_monitor.pine
View all files
Repository files navigation
MVRV Regime Monitor
An honest Bitcoin MVRV indicator for TradingView. Validated thresholds, falsified scope, disclosed limits.
What this is
A Pine Script v5 indicator that:
Pulls INTOTHEBLOCK:BTC_MVRV (free TradingView feed) on the daily timeframe
Shows the current MVRV value with four regime thresholds (entry, accumulation, exit, euphoria)
Colors the background by regime so you can see at a glance whether Bitcoin is in a value zone, neutral zone, or distribution zone
Fires alerts when MVRV crosses any of the validated thresholds
States its statistical limits clearly in tooltips on every input
What this is NOT
Not a buy/sell signal generator. It tells you where in the cycle BTC sits. You decide what to do.
Not a high-frequency strategy. N=3 trades in 8 years.
Not applicable to altcoins. Falsified on 8 of them (see below).
Not a guaranteed edge forward. Cycle Sharpe has been declining (1.96 → 1.81 → 1.40); ETF maturity appears to be compressing the signal.
If you want hype, there are dozens of other MVRV indicators on TradingView. This one is what's left after stripping the marketing.
Why this exists
After spending six months testing rule-based, ML-based, and on-chain signal strategies on crypto majors — and falsifying all of them except this — I wanted one TradingView indicator that does what the others don't: state the actual statistical evidence, not the marketing version.
Every MVRV indicator on TradingView claims it identifies cycle tops and bottoms. None of them disclose:
The walk-forward Sharpe
The number of trades the signal has actually produced
Whether the signal holds on altcoins (it doesn't)
Whether the edge is decaying (it is, since ETF launch)
This one does.
Walk-forward validation
Methodology: in-sample 2018-01 to 2021-12, out-of-sample 2022-01 to 2026-04. 10 bps trading fee. Long when MVRV crosses below entry threshold, exit when MVRV crosses above exit threshold.
Threshold sweep (64 combinations tested)
Outcome<br>Result
Best IS combo<br>low=1.0, high=2.5
IS CAGR @ best combo<br>+76%, Sharpe 1.62
OOS CAGR @ same combo<br>+27%, DD −36%, Sharpe 0.91
OOS trades<br>1 (entered 2022-11, exited 2024-02)
Threshold combos with positive CAGR<br>64/64
Threshold combos beating buy & hold<br>52/64
Full period (2018-2026) at validated thresholds
Metric<br>MVRV strategy<br>Buy & Hold
CAGR<br>+48%<br>+24%
Max drawdown<br>−36%<br>−81%
Time invested<br>41%<br>100%
The edge isn't return enhancement (BTC buy & hold beats most things over long horizons). The edge is drawdown reduction : roughly half the max DD at twice the CAGR, by sitting in cash for ~60% of the cycle.
Multi-asset falsification
The same strategy tested on 8 altcoins (ETH, LTC, BCH, BNB, ADA, XRP, DOT, LINK):
Asset<br>Strategy CAGR<br>Buy & Hold<br>Verdict
BTC<br>+48%<br>+24%<br>✓ Robust
BCH<br>+12%<br>−9%<br>✓ (B&H is terrible anyway)
ETH<br>−2%<br>+18%<br>✗ Underperforms
LTC<br>−7%<br>−12%<br>≈ Beats B&H but both bad
BNB<br>+4%<br>+71%<br>✗ Massively underperforms
ADA<br>−9%<br>+14%<br>✗ Loses money
XRP<br>+1%<br>+8%<br>✗ Underperforms
DOT<br>−31%<br>−47%<br>≈ Beats B&H but both bad
LINK<br>+2%<br>−18%<br>≈ Beats B&H but B&H is terrible
Correlations between MVRV level and forward returns are positive or zero on most altcoins (anti-pattern). The MVRV mean-reversion signal that works on BTC is not generalizable.
Conclusion: this is a BTC-only model. Use it on the BTC chart; do not extrapolate.
Cycle-over-cycle decay
Sub-period Sharpe ratios for the same thresholds:
Cycle window<br>Sharpe
2018-2021<br>1.96
2020-2023<br>1.81
2022-2026<br>1.40
The drop is consistent with structural ETF impact : spot ETF launch in January 2024 added a large pool of capital with different...