The Coming Food Crisis in South Asia – The Diplomat
Central<br>Asia
East Asia
Oceania
South<br>Asia
Southeast<br>Asia
Diplomacy
Economy
Environment
Opinion
Politics
Security
Society
ASEAN Beat
Asia<br>Defense
China<br>Power
Crossroads<br>Asia
Flashpoints
Oceania
Pacific<br>Money
The Debate
The Koreas
The Pulse
Tokyo<br>Report
Trans-Pacific<br>View
Features
Interviews
Photo Essays
Podcasts
Videos
Diplomat Brief
Weekly Newsletter
Home Page
About<br>Us
Contact Us
Write<br>for Us
Advertise
Syndicate
Privacy
Newsletter
Subscriptions
Pacific Money<br>The Coming Food Crisis in South Asia
Recent Features<br>Videos<br>Duterte vs Marcos: The Political Feud Tearing Apart the Philippines
Politics<br>What Kim Jong Un Really Fears: Outside Information
Security<br>Can the NPT Survive Amid Global Disorder?
Society<br>Nepal’s Digital Divide: Why Millions Still Lack Affordable Internet Access
Environment<br>Gulf Energy Crisis Exposes Southeast Asia’s Renewable Energy Dilemma
Security<br>The Hormuz Crisis and China’s Energy Security Dilemma
Diplomacy<br>Trump Goes to Beijing: What to Watch
Videos<br>India Still Sees Russia as a Trusted Friend. Is That a Mistake?
Diplomacy<br>Why an Australia-US Rare Earth Deal Sparked Backlash in Malaysia
Politics<br>India’s 2026 State Polls Power up the Modi Juggernaut, Reshape the Opposition
Society<br>A Year After the War: Kashmir’s Border Civilians Sit Between Shelled Roofs and Self-Made Bunkers
Security<br>Why the ‘Control Rod’ Wouldn’t Budge: 20 Years of OPCON Transfer Debates
Subscribe for ads-free reading
Credit: Photo 93669954 © Dreamstime Agency | Dreamstime.com<br>Subscribe for ads-free reading
Disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may appear, at first glance, to be another episode of energy market instability. But the implications, especially for South Asia, run much deeper. Disruptions in oil supply are not only causing a surge in fuel prices; they are a clear warning of an impending food crisis driven by fertilizer shortages, rising production costs, and increasingly fragile agri-food systems. A similar pattern was evident during the 2007-2008 global crisis, when fertilizer prices nearly tripled, and global food prices surged by more than 50 percent.
Modern agri-food systems depend heavily on energy, not only for transport and irrigation but also for fertilizer production. Nitrogen fertilizers, in particular, rely on natural gas. When energy supplies tighten, production slows and prices increase. What begins as an energy shock can quickly move into the agricultural system.
South Asian countries in particular heavily depend on fertilizer and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. In 2024, India imported more than half of its total fertilizer from the Gulf.
The problem deepens as fertilizers move through supply chains. South Asia’s imported fertilizers travel long distances across borders. Higher fuel costs and logistical disruptions delay delivery and reduce availability even more.
These impacts are not evenly distributed. Higher-income countries often buffer such shocks through subsidies or stronger purchasing power. In contrast, lower-income, import-dependent countries face immediate constraints.
Across South Asia, the scale of dependency is massive. India uses roughly 60 million tonnes of fertilizer nutrients annually, while Pakistan and Bangladesh use about 10 million and 6 million tonnes, respectively. Countries like Nepal, which have very limited domestic production, illustrate another level of vulnerability.
With the South Asian countries relying heavily on imports, timely access to fertilizer has become the most pressing constraint in agriculture production. Agriculture is extremely time-sensitive and does not respond well to delays. Crops require nutrients at specific growth stages. If fertilizer arrives late, farmers cannot fully recover the lost productivity. This means that even modest disruptions in supply can have wide-ranging consequences on crop production.
Disruptions linked to current tensions are affecting up to one-third of the global fertilizer trade, creating supply shortages and higher costs. Even at the lower end, the implications are serious. Staple crops such as rice and wheat are highly sensitive to fertilizer application. Evidence shows that removing nitrogen can reduce wheat yields by more than half, while inadequate phosphorus can lower rice yields by around 30 percent. In general, reduced fertilizer application leads to significant yield declines globally. In already stressed food systems, such reductions can quickly shift conditions from stability to shortage.
Lower yields push prices upward, reducing food access for low-income households. In countries like Nepal, where a large share of household income is spent on food, even small price increases can have significant effects. Imports may offset some shortages, but during global disruptions they become more expensive and less reliable.
This pattern is not new. During the 2007-2008 global food crisis,...