World Probability, Observer Frequency, and Self-Locating Uncertainty in the Sleeping Beauty Problem
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Published May 13, 2026
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World Probability, Observer Frequency, and Self-Locating Uncertainty in the Sleeping Beauty Problem
Authors/Creators
Pothuri, Avaneesh
Description
This manuscript develops a conceptual framework for analyzing the Sleeping Beauty problem by clearly separating world-level probability from conditional self-locating uncertainty .
The central claim is that observer multiplicity introduces self-locating and experiential asymmetries without altering the underlying probability mass of the world-generating event itself. In this view, repeated awakenings do not redistribute probability across possible worlds; instead, they affect how an observer is indexed within a given world.
The framework distinguishes between four key components:
World-level probability : the probability assigned to the underlying generating event or world state.
Observer-frequency : the number of observer-moments produced within a given world.
Self-locating uncertainty : uncertainty regarding which observer-moment one occupies.
Expected utility : decision-theoretic evaluation conditioned on observer position rather than world probability alone.
Using this separation, the manuscript argues that repeated awakenings influence observer-frequency and betting exposure, but do not inherently modify the probability of the underlying world itself. Instead, they reshape the structure of self-locating belief and decision-making.
This work presents an independent interpretive framework intended as a conceptual contribution to ongoing discussions in anthropic reasoning, probability theory, and self-locating belief .
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10.5281/zenodo.20145027
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Resource type<br>Preprint
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Created
May 12, 2026
Modified
May 12, 2026
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