I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

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I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

27th May 2026

Anthropic are strongly rumored to be about to have their first profitable quarter. Stories are circulating of companies surprised at how expensive their LLM bills are becoming from usage by their staff. I think this is because OpenAI and Anthropic have both found product-market fit.

Enterprise customers are now paying API prices

I currently subscribe to the $100/month Max plan from Anthropic and the $100/month Pro plan from OpenAI. If you are a heavy user of coding agents these plans are a fantastic deal. I just ran the ccusage tool on my laptop to get an estimate of how much I would have spent if I were to pay for API tokens in the past 30 days and got:

$1,199.79 for Anthropic Claude Code

$980.37 for OpenAI Codex

That’s $2,180.16 worth of tokens for $200—not bad at all! I’m a moderately heavy user of these tools, but I’m certainly not running agents every hour of the day and night.

I had assumed that companies making extensive use of agents were getting similar discounts. It turns out I could not have been more wrong about that.

I haven’t been able to track down the exact date, but at some point in the last six months Anthropic switched their Enterprise plan (originally “Claude seats include enough usage for a typical workday” back in August 2025) to $20/seat/month plus API pricing for usage. This story about the change from The Information is dated Apr 14, 2026, but cites an Anthropic spokesperson claiming that the pricing change occurred in November 2025. Existing customers are finding out about the change as they renew their contracts.

OpenAI made a similar pricing change in April. The Codex rate card (Internet Archive copy) currently says:

Note : On April 2, 2026, we updated Codex pricing to align with API token usage, instead of per-message pricing. This change was applicable to new and existing Plus, Pro, ChatGPT Business and new ChatGPT Enterprise plans.

On April 23, 2026, we made this update for all existing ChatGPT Enterprise plans as well, inclusive of Edu, Health, Gov, and ChatGPT for Teachers.

It’s a little harder to decode as they quote prices in “credits”, but as far as I can tell those credit costs are an exact match for the API token costs listed for those models.

All of which is to say that as of April 2026 the “Enterprise” cost for both OpenAI Codex and Anthropic Claude Code/Cowork is the same as the listed API price.

GPT-5.5 (released April 23rd) is 2x the API price of GPT-5.4. Opus 4.7 (April 16th) is around 1.4x the price of Opus 4.6 when you take their new tokenizer into account.

So April saw both leading model companies release new frontier models with a higher API price, and both companies now have measures to lock their enterprise customers (who tend to sign year-long deals) at those API prices, not the previous extreme discounts.

I think they’ve found product-market fit

Why these sudden aggressive moves on pricing? Both Anthropic and OpenAI are planning to IPO, but I suspect there’s a more important factor here: I think they’ve finally found product-market fit, with the coding/general-purpose agent products embodied by Claude Code/Cowork and Codex.

Tools like ChatGPT are wildly popular, but that wild popularity has been difficult to turn into revenue. In February OpenAI boasted more than 900 million weekly active users for ChatGPT, but only 50 million—5.6% of that—were paying consumer subscribers.

Charging $10-$20/month per user is an OK business, but you’d need 1-2 billion subscribers sticking around for four years to cover $1 trillion in infrastructure.

Companies spending $200+/month/user will get you there a whole lot faster—and as noted above, as a power-user I’m at ~$1,000/month in API costs per vendor already.

Coding agents really did change everything. These are tools which burn vastly more tokens, but are also quickly becoming daily drivers for the work carried out by extremely well-compensated professionals. Right now that’s still mostly software engineers, but a coding agent is a tool that can automate anything you can do by typing commands into a computer... so they are clearly applicable to a much wider set of skilled knowledge workers.

As I’ve discussed on this site at length, the models released in November 2025 elevated agents to being genuinely useful. We’ve had six months to get used to that idea now—it’s no wonder companies are beginning to spend real money on this technology.

You could argue that ChatGPT achieved product-market fit when it became the fastest-growing consumer app in history back in February 2023... but it certainly wasn’t making any actual money back then. Coding agents plus enterprise pricing marks the point when these companies start...