Climate change: World likely to breach 1.5°C limit in next five years | UN News
Skip to main content / navigation
UN News
Global perspective Human stories
English<br>Search
Search
Advanced Search
UN News
Global perspective Human stories
Search
Search
Advanced Search
Climate change: World likely to breach 1.5°C limit in next five years
World Bank/Curt Carnemark<br>Glaciers are retreating due to climate change including in Chile (pictured).
Facebook<br>Twitter<br>Print<br>Email
Climate change: World likely to breach 1.5°C limit in next five years
28 May 2025<br>Climate and Environment Fact: 2024 was the warmest year on record – but the heat is far from over. A new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that global temperatures will likely continue rising, with an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between now and 2029 will be even hotter.
According to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, the planet is predicted to experience temperatures between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) over the next five years.<br>Breaching critical thresholds<br>In 2024, the WMO estimated that the average global temperature was between 1.34°C and 1.41°C higher than pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The WMO now projects the 20-year average warming for 2015–2034 to reach around 1.44°C above pre-industrial levels.<br>The report finds a staggering 86 per cent chance that global average temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years, and a one per cent chance of one of those years exceeding 2°C of warming.<br>There is a 70 per cent chance that the five-year average itself will exceed this 1.5 degree threshold.<br>The WMO stressed that the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target refers to long-term averages over 20 years, meaning its threshold has not been breached quite yet.<br>However, these near-term spikes are warning signs of an accelerating climate crisis.<br>The forecast also highlights regional precipitation impacts, including wetter-than-average conditions expected in the African Sahel, northern Europe, and South Asia. Conversely, the Amazon region could see continued drought.<br>Arctic warming accelerates<br>The situation is even more catastrophic in the Arctic than in the rest of the world. The average Arctic temperature over the next five winters (November to March) is expected to be 2.4°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, more than three and a half times the increase in the global average temperature.<br>Sea ice is expected to keep shrinking, particularly in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas, contributing to rising sea levels and disrupted weather patterns worldwide.<br>As the world enters this critical window, the UN agency urged climate action to prevent even more dangerous warming in the decades ahead and keep long-term warming below the 1.5°C limit.
♦ Receive daily updates directly in your inbox - Subscribe here to a topic.
♦ Download the UN News app for your iOS or Android devices.
Paris Agreement on climate change
Related Stories
World heading towards new temperature records, UN weather watchdog warns
Climate: World getting ‘measurably closer’ to 1.5-degree threshold
Earth’s hottest June on record
News Tracker: Past Stories on This Issue
Climate change takes increasingly extreme toll on African countries
12 May 2025
Climate and Environment
Devastating floods in South Sudan in recent months left thousands of herders without their most precious possessions: goats, cows and cattle. The animals are central to people’s lives and age-old customs including marriage and cultural traditions. All risk being swept away or scorched by the ravages of climate change.
Climate change: Paris Agreement goals still within reach, says UN chief
18 March 2025
Climate and Environment
The effects of human-driven climate change surged to alarming levels in 2024, with some consequences likely to be irreversible for centuries - if not millennia – according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Facebook<br>Twitter<br>Print<br>Email