Weekend Update #186: A Primer On The Difference Between Long and Medium/Mid Range Strike

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Weekend Update #186: A Primer On The Difference Between Long and Medium/Mid Range Strike<br>Examples Of Both; also, The Trump Administration Pivots, The Reason Why Is The Important Thing

Phillips P. OBrien<br>May 24, 2026

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Hi All,<br>I know many of you are following the US-Iran War closely and are hearing the news about Trump possibly throwing in the towel and accepting defeat. Certainly looks like that. However, this update will stay on the Russo-Ukraine War. If Trump is indeed folding, it will not be a big shock to readers here.<br>This was a week when Ukraine continued to step up its game in both long- and medium/mid-range strike, and talked publicly about both. Btw, for the sake of ease, from now on I will just say medium-range strike. I know that these concepts will be old news for long-time readers of this Substack, however there have been lots of new readers in the last few months and I thought it would be useful to provide a primer on the difference between them. Its not just about distance, its actually more about concepts, and understanding what matters in the use of air power.<br>I will then follow up with examples of each, as this week Ukraine demonstrated its growing ability in both domains. If they continue to expand their capacity at the present trajectory and Russia cannot come up with a counter, the Russian military is in real trouble.

A Burning Russian Truck Trying To Bring Supplies Along The M-14 highway into Mariupol.<br>Also, this week was interesting for the Trump administration, which is clearly trying to row back on its earlier support for Putin and its hostility towards Ukraine. How they did it is ultimately less important than why, but both will be discussed.<br>Finally, my latest piece just appeared in The Atlantic. Here is a gift link. It builds on this Substack published last week, so it might not be terribly new for many of you, but at least the right narrative is getting out.

Has Putin Met His Marianas Moment?<br>Phillips P. OBrien<br>May 18

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A Primer On The Difference Between Long and Medium/Mid Range Strike

That sound you hear might be an burning Russian oil refinery near the Ural Mountains or it might be an exploding logistics convoy travelling along the M14 Highway (the Ukrainian highway from the Russian border to Mariupol and on to Odesa, much of which is under Russian occupation). These examples of both successful Ukrainian long and medium range strike, are something which the Ukrainians are trying to communicate to the rest of the world. Zelensky even mentioned both in this recent tweet.

Long-time readers of this Substack will probably not be surprised by these different concepts, but there are many newer readers who might find some background on them useful. To begin with, if you want to read why these changes are so important, and why people who believed Russia had the upper hand in the ranged war were so wrong, here is a piece from October 2025 which tried to educate people on what to watch out for at that point in the war.

The Ranged War Is Still In An Early Stage<br>Phillips P. OBrien<br>October 30, 2025

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The Difference Between Long-Range and Medium/Mid-Range Strike:<br>To preface this discussion I will admit that there is no one definition for long-range and medium-range strike that is universally accepted. For this war it is best to think of the difference between them in conceptual terms more than just a range differential, with a proviso that technology and capability also play a major role.<br>Long-range strike could best be compared to strategic bombing in World War II. It is an attempt to strike deep into Russia to try and damage the strategic industries that underpin the Russian war machine. This involves most famously the campaign against Russian oil refineries, but do not overlook strikes on Russian military production such as drones, both in the component producing and final assembly phase. The strikes around St Petersburg and Moscow and now increasingly into the Urals are all part of this long-range strike campaign, but it also includes strikes in Southern Russia such as around the Caspian. So think of long-range strike as trying to limit/damage the ability of the Russians to generate new military force.<br>Ukrainian medium-range strike is conceptually different though in certain cases there have been medium-range strikes that have been on targets almost as far away as those being done for long-range strike. Medium-range strikes can occur in quite a large area, as close as 25-30 kilometres from the front line and stretching for say 300 kilometres further. What holds these strikes together is their purpose as much as their distance....