Parallel Intelligence and Cognitive Warfare
Contents
Disclaimer
Introduction
Problem Space
Solution Space
Concluding Remarks
Disclaimer
This article contains subject matter that requires careful discussion. While the<br>general topic is not new, this might be unsettling for some subsets of readers.<br>It may result in feelings of disbelief in one subset, and perhaps feelings of<br>dread in another. I kindly ask that we, including myself, keep an open mind so<br>that we can all think clearly and truthfully about the nuances in the problem<br>and solution spaces.
To borrow and adapt<br>phrasing<br>from François Chollet’s post on a similar topic from 2018: This article contains<br>my own personal views. I do not speak for my employer. I am writing this as a<br>member of civil society for readers (e.g. cyber security practitioners) in their<br>capacity as members of civil society. If you reference this article, please have<br>the honesty to present these views as what they are: personal, speculative<br>opinions, to be judged on their own merits.
Introduction
In my last post, I discussed what it looks like in<br>commercial cyber when market incentives and long-term national security<br>incentives seem to pull in opposite directions. It gives strategic adversaries<br>more breathing room to operate because we have been too busy maximizing capital.<br>In this post, I’d like to elaborate on a major blind spot that demonstrates how<br>far along they’ve come and how little we’re doing.
It is becoming understood that various actors are able to create digital twins<br>of ourselves and society to ultimately control us in ways that reduce our<br>privacy and volition. The competition between defenders and adversaries has<br>extended beyond computers into our minds. I contend that we are experiencing a<br>failure of imagination about adversaries at a scale that has proven lucrative<br>for companies while simultaneously fraying our cognition and social fabric. This<br>knot poses threats to both democracy and human security. Protecting our minds<br>has become as important as protecting our computers.
There is a way out of this, but it requires sustained effort and creativity.<br>Specifically, I believe it requires: (1) a way to think clearly about the modern<br>threat landscape (where vendors have lacked commercial incentive1), (2) the<br>motivation to correlate our daily actions to the bigger picture, and (3) the<br>courage to make decisions that help improve collective well-being with the<br>agency each of us already has. With more awareness and collaboration, I’m<br>cautiously optimistic things will improve.
In this essay, I will discuss both the problem space and the solution space as I<br>see them. Here’s the article structure so you’ll know what you’re getting into:
In the problem space, I’ll introduce the PRC version of “parallel<br>intelligence,” and how methodologies like that can advance what is known as<br>“cognitive warfare” (at a technical level). Throughout, I’ll emphasize the<br>threat that cognitive warfare poses to democracy and human flourishing.
In discussing the solution space, I’ll start with the principles and mindset<br>shift required to address the threat. I’ll expand from there with the pillars<br>that most efforts could fall into. This should help scaffold a mental model<br>for response and stimulate ideas into action.
If this sounds like your cup of tea, then grab it and start sipping. It’s going<br>to be a dense read. While I hope it will be enlightening, it will be an active<br>reading exercise where I’d suggest taking breaks between sections or paragraphs<br>to pause and reflect on what I’m trying to convey. Feel free to print it out or<br>load it into your e-reader. If you’re feeling nerdy, check out the footnotes for<br>more nuance and speculative views.
As for the length, I wanted to weave most of my current thoughts together into<br>one essay for those that are interested in thinking deeply and laterally about<br>the subject matter. While the nature of AI summaries will obscure exactly what<br>I’m trying to convey, if you need to take that route, then I’d suggest using<br>Google’s NotebookLM and generate a “deep dive”<br>podcast with the link to this article.2 In the future, I might spotlight topics<br>from this essay with smaller, more consumable, posts.
I circulated drafts of this essay among several peers for their feedback before<br>publication. Many of them contributed to it with insightful discussion and<br>reading materials. Several aspects of the discussions made me pause and forced<br>me to refine my thinking. I am deeply grateful for their support.
Problem Space
I’ll begin with describing the problem space. Not the one that yields solutions<br>for defenders, but the one that yields solutions for authoritarian adversaries.<br>Understanding it comes with a learning curve that we‘ll have to build up to.<br>I’ve tried my best to minimize its steepness at the loss of some nuance.3 Once<br>you see...