Record Conflicts Drive Peace to Historic Low as AI Warfare Surges

EDITORIAL Record Conflicts Drive Peace to Historic Low as AI warfare surges

Global peacefulness deteriorated for the 12h consecutive year, with the number of active, state-based conflicts reaching 61. This is the highest number since the end of the Second World War.

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Published on: June 9, 2026

Global peacefulness deteriorated for the 12h consecutive year, with the number of active, state-based conflicts reaching 61. This is the highest number since the end of the Second World War.

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London, June 9, 2026 – The 2026 Global Peace Index (GPI), released today by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), reveals a world struggling with the economic consequences of a record-high number of conflicts that are increasingly interconnected and difficult to resolve. This deterioration is driven by a profound geopolitical shift, characterised by the rising influence of middle powers and the waning strength of traditional European powers known as the “Great Fragmentation.” This is also accompanied by a rapid technological revolution in warfare that is leaving international law and diplomacy far behind.

For the first time in history, machines are making life-and-death combat decisions faster than any human can review them, and the international frameworks meant to govern them barely exist.

Key results

99 countries witnessed a deterioration in peacefulness in the past year, the highest number since the inception of the Index 20 years ago.

119 countries, 73%, are now less peaceful than when the GPI was first published in 2007.

The number of countries engaged in external conflict has nearly doubled from 59 in 2008 to 103 in the 2026 GPI.

The global economic impact of violence increased by 3.2% to US$21.81 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 10.5% of global GDP.

Drone attacks rose by over 11,500% between 2018 and 2025, while AI has compressed targeting times from one day to seconds.

Deaths from global conflict remain at historic highs, with over 181,000 killed in 2025, a six-fold increase since 2008.

Led by Europe, global military expenditure reached a record US$2.9 trillion in 2025. Excluding the US, military expenditure increased by 9.2%.

Successful diplomacy that prevents the war in Iran from restarting would be worth approximately US$2.2 trillion to the global economy.

Global peacefulness deteriorated for the 12h consecutive year, with the number of active, state-based conflicts reaching 61. This is the highest number since the end of the Second World War. Underpinning the long-term decline is a six-fold rise in internal conflict deaths since 2007, from 29,000 to over 181,000 in 2025, while the number of countries recording 1,000 or more conflict deaths is the highest since the inception of the GPI 20 years ago.

This escalation sits inside a broader structural transformation of the international system termed the "Great Fragmentation." As rising middle powers fill the vacuum left by declining traditional great powers, the global rules for peace are fracturing. This shift is highlighted by the sharp decline in the economic influence of European powers over the last three decades. Since 1995, Germany’s share of global GDP has fallen by 49%, France’s by 44%, and Italy’s by 42%. With multilateral institutions diminished and great power consensus weakened, the historical mechanisms for ending wars are failing. The share of conflicts ending in a peace agreement has plummeted from 23% in the 1970s to just 4% in the last decade, while global investment in proactive peacebuilding stands at just 0.52% of total military spending.

AI and the New Tools of War

Drones have become a defining weapon of modern warfare, with recorded attacks rising by 11,500% between 2018 and 2025. This proliferation extends beyond nation-states, as 565 different armed groups, including criminal cartels, carried out drone attacks during that period.

In Gaza, algorithmic targeting has reportedly compressed the human review of AI-generated targets to roughly 20 seconds per strike. In Ukraine, autonomous systems are being deployed to engage targets without an operator in the loop. This raises serious concerns about the erosion of meaningful human oversight in lethal decision-making.

Global Highlights

Amid these global pressures, Iceland remains the most peaceful country, a position it has held for 19 consecutive years, followed by New Zealand, Switzerland, Slovenia and Ireland. For the first time, Russia is the least peaceful country globally, followed by Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ukraine, and Israel. South Asia recorded the largest regional deterioration in the 2026 Index, driven by falls in peacefulness in Nepal and Pakistan. Meanwhile, political instability and a surge in violent demonstrations drove a 4% decline in the United States, pushing it to 134th, its lowest-ever ranking since the Index was created.

The economic...