The Multiplanetary Trade — A SpaceX Investment Thesis

SPCX · NASDAQLISTS FRI JUN 12, 2026 FIXED PRICE $135.00 VALUATION ≈$1.75T RAISE ≈$75B — LARGEST IPO IN HISTORY2025 REVENUE $18.5B+ STARLINK SUBS 10.3M+ NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE<br>SPCX · NASDAQLISTS FRI JUN 12, 2026 FIXED PRICE $135.00 VALUATION ≈$1.75T RAISE ≈$75B — LARGEST IPO IN HISTORY2025 REVENUE $18.5B+ STARLINK SUBS 10.3M+ NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

01

01 / The listing

It's not a rumor. It's a filed, priced, scheduled IPO.

SpaceX filed its S-1 on May 20, ran a quick roadshow starting June 4, and prices after Thursday's close. Trading starts Friday, June 12 on the Nasdaq under SPCX. They went with a fixed price — $135 a share, no price-range games — selling about 556 million shares to raise around $75 billion at roughly a $1.75 trillion valuation. Biggest IPO ever, about three times Aramco's record.

The run-up has been wild: $350 billion in late 2024, $800 billion at the December tender, $1.25 trillion after the xAI merger in February, and now $1.75 trillion. Yes, the last leg more than doubled in six months — but the $250 billion xAI deal happened inside that window, so it's not quite apples to apples. The S-1 also showed what that deal costs: revenue topped $18.5 billion in 2025, with a net loss of almost $5 billion.

If you're writing a $1M check, two structural things matter. One, this is a controlled company, period. Dual-class shares give Elon about 85% of the votes on roughly 42% of the equity, and they'll lean on Nasdaq's controlled-company exemptions. You're buying the economics, not a say. Two, the deal is built for retail like nothing before it — about 30% of the offering, $22.5 billion or so, goes straight to retail brokerages. Triple the usual. Lockups open September through December. So the listing is real. The only open question is what Friday's open does to a fixed $135 price.

What the filing says

It's real: prices June 11, lists Friday June 12, 2026 on Nasdaq as SPCX.

Fixed $135/share , ~556M shares, ~$75B raise — surpassing Saudi Aramco's record.

Dual-class control: ~85% of votes on ~42% of equity; public holders get economics, not governance.

~30% retail allocation (~$22.5B) via Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi, E-Trade.

The catch: valuation more than doubled from the Dec 2025 tender in six months, and lockups expire Sep–Dec 2026.

$1.75T<br>IPO valuation at $135 per share<br>S-1 / press coverage, June 2026

$75B<br>Raise — the largest IPO in history<br>~556M shares at fixed $135

$800B<br>Last private mark, Dec 2025 tender<br>Pre-xAI-merger; $421/sh pre-split

~85%<br>Musk voting power on ~42% of equity<br>S-1 dual-class disclosure

02

02 / The moat

The launch monopoly nobody can touch.

165 Falcon launches in 2025. A record for the sixth year straight, more orbital flights than the rest of the planet combined — a rocket roughly every 53 hours. They've flown 68 more this year through June 8. The whole machine runs on reuse: one Falcon 9 booster just flew its 35th mission. Every reflight spreads a ~$30M first stage over another paying launch, which is why estimates put SpaceX's internal cost around $600–650/kg while they charge ~$2,700/kg. Competitors are trying to break even at SpaceX's price. SpaceX makes money at its cost.

The cleaner way to see it is upmass. In 2025, SpaceX put up roughly 2,213 of the ~3,020 metric tons the whole world sent to orbit — about 73%. All of China, the number-two launch power on Earth, managed maybe a tenth of that. At some point it stops being market share and starts being market ownership, and it compounds while every rival flies expendable or close to it.

Starship is act two, and it's been messy but it's moving. Twelve flights so far. They've caught the booster with the tower and reflown it with most of its engines intact. Flight 12 in May flew the new V3 vehicle and deployed 22 payloads — though they lost the booster on the way back, and they still haven't caught the ship itself. V3 is supposed to do 100+ tons to orbit, fully reusable. If that works, the engineering estimates say under $200/kg and eventually under $100/kg — a 10–30x drop in the cost of getting to space. To be clear, those are targets, not numbers anyone has hit. But the moat isn't the targets, it's the decade of flight data nobody else has. Blue Origin reportedly lost a year-plus to its pad explosion in May. Vulcan, Ariane 6, Long March — all still expendable.

Why it compounds

165 launches in 2025 — more than the rest of the world combined; 68 more by June 8, 2026.

Reuse is the margin machine: a booster on its 35th flight ; rivals compete with SpaceX's price, SpaceX operates at its cost.

~73% of global mass-to-orbit in 2025; China's entire national program lifted roughly a tenth as much.

Starship at 12 flights: booster caught and reflown, V3 flying — full reuse points toward sub-$100/kg (target, not yet demonstrated).

Competitors structurally behind: the only rival booster-landing program reportedly sidelined a year by a pad...