AIWC26 — AI vs AI World Cup 2026 sweepstake
AI vs AI World Cup 2026 sweepstake
Several large language models were handed an identical brief and asked to<br>predict every group-stage scoreline before kick-off. Their answers are<br>published here unedited and scored against the real results. None of them<br>have seen a football.
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United States v Paraguay
Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi)
League table
ModelScoredExactResultPts
★ Claude Sonnet 4.6<br>(Anthropic)
Claude Fable 5<br>(Anthropic)
Gemini 3.5 Flash<br>(Google)
Ranking Bot<br>(FIFA rankings + one rule)
Human 1.0<br>(One football fan)
GPT-5.5<br>(OpenAI)
Gemini 3.1 Pro<br>(Google)
3 pts exact score · 1 pt correct result · 0 otherwise
Ranking Bot — method<br>Deterministic baseline. FIFA World Ranking of 1 Apr 2026; teams within 10 places of each other draw 1-1, otherwise the higher-ranked team wins 2-1. No model, no judgement. (generated 2026-06-10)
Claude Fable 5 — method<br>Weighted blend of FIFA ranking (Apr 2026), qualifying and recent tournament form, squad depth and key-player club seasons, plus host/venue effects. Scores are modal outcomes, not expected goals. (generated 2026-06-10)
Claude Sonnet 4.6 — method<br>Predictions blend historical World Cup pedigree, 2024-26 qualifying/continental form, squad quality, and host/altitude context, leaning toward favorites winning narrowly (1-2 goal margins) while predicting draws for closely matched pairings and allowing for plausible upsets among debutant nations. (generated 2026-06-10)
GPT-5.5 — method<br>Predictions balance long-term World Cup strength, recent tournament and qualifying form, projected 2026 squads, host effects, and likely tactical matchups. Scorelines represent the single most likely full-time outcome rather than expected-goals averages. (generated 2026-06-10)
Gemini 3.1 Pro — method<br>Predictions synthesize historical Elo ratings, recent continental tournament form, and venue advantages for North American host nations. Baseline scoreline probabilities were adjusted based on squad depth, tactical matchups, and key player form during the 2025-26 club season. (generated 2026-06-11)
Gemini 3.5 Flash — method<br>Predictions are calculated based on historic tournament pedigrees, historical host advantages, recent qualification data, and current squad strength for the 2026 cycle. (generated 2026-06-11)
Human 1.0 — method<br>Picks received by the maintainer roughly 20 minutes after the opening match kicked off; the entrant states they were written before kickoff and the maintainer accepts that, so A1 is included and scored. Every other fixture predates its kickoff unambiguously. Expects more draws than the robots. (generated 2026-06-11)
Note: Gemini's predictions were regenerated on 11 June 2026 after it<br>misreported its own model version.
Fixtures & predictions
■ exact<br>■ result<br>■ wrong<br>■ awaiting result<br>◆ models split on result
Group A
FixtureActual<br>Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 FlashHuman 1.0
A1<br>MEX v RSA
2-0 FT
2-1
2-0
2-0
2-0
2-0
2-0
2-1
A2<br>KOR v CZE
2-1 FT
2-1
1-1
2-1
1-1
1-1
1-1
1-1
A3<br>MEX v KOR
2026-06-18
2-1
2-1
2-1
1-1
2-1
2-1
1-2
A4<br>CZE v RSA
2026-06-18
2-1
1-0
2-1
1-0
2-0
2-0
1-0
A5<br>CZE v MEX
2026-06-24
1-2
0-1
1-1
1-1
1-2
1-1
0-1
A6<br>RSA v KOR
2026-06-24
1-2
0-2
1-2
0-1
0-2
0-2
0-1
Group B
FixtureActual<br>Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 FlashHuman 1.0
B1<br>SUI v CAN
2026-06-24
2-1
1-1
2-1
1-1
1-1
2-1
2-1
B2<br>BIH v QAT
2026-06-24
1-2
1-0
2-1
1-1
0-1
1-0
3-0
B3<br>CAN v QAT
2026-06-18
2-1
2-0
2-0
2-0
2-0
2-0
1-0
B4<br>SUI v BIH
2026-06-18
2-1
2-0
2-1
1-0
2-0
2-1
1-1
B5<br>CAN v BIH
1-1 FT
2-1
1-1
1-1
2-1
2-1
1-1
1-1
B6<br>QAT v SUI
2026-06-13
1-2
0-3
0-2
0-2
0-2
0-3
0-2
Group C
FixtureActual<br>Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 FlashHuman 1.0
C1<br>BRA v MAR
2026-06-13
1-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-0
2-1
2-1
C2<br>HAI v SCO
2026-06-13
1-2
0-1
0-2
0-2
0-3
0-2
0-3
C3<br>BRA v HAI
2026-06-19
2-1
3-0
4-0
4-0
4-0
4-0
3-0
C4<br>SCO v MAR
2026-06-19
1-2
0-2
1-1
1-1
0-1
1-2
1-1
C5<br>SCO v BRA
2026-06-24
1-2
0-2
0-2
0-2
0-2
0-3
1-1
C6<br>MAR v HAI
2026-06-24
2-1
3-0
3-0
2-0
3-0
3-0
2-1
Group D
FixtureActual<br>Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 FlashHuman 1.0
D1<br>USA v PAR
2026-06-12
2-1
1-0
2-1
2-1
2-0
2-0
1-1
D2<br>AUS v TUR
2026-06-14
1-1
1-1
1-2
1-2
0-2
1-2
1-1
D3<br>USA v AUS
2026-06-19
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-0
2-1
2-1
1-0
D4<br>TUR v PAR
2026-06-19
2-1
1-1
2-1
1-1
1-1
1-0
2-1
D5<br>TUR v USA
2026-06-25
1-1
1-2
1-1
1-1
1-1
1-1
1-1
D6<br>PAR v AUS
2026-06-25
1-2
1-0
1-1
1-1
2-1
1-1
1-1
Group E
FixtureActual<br>Ranking BotClaude Fable 5Claude Sonnet 4.6GPT-5.5Gemini 3.1 ProGemini 3.5 FlashHuman 1.0
E1<br>GER v CUW
2026-06-14
2-1
3-0
4-0
3-0
4-0
4-0
5-0
E2<br>CIV v...