PRC Pulls Ahead in Quantum Communications Security - Jamestown
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PRC Pulls Ahead in Quantum Communications Security
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China Brief Notes
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06.11.2026<br>Sunny Cheung<br>Download
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PRC Pulls Ahead in Quantum Communications Security
Executive Summary:
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) currently leads in the application of quantum technologies, especially secure communications network infrastructure, while the United States remains stronger in foundational research breakthroughs.
Even where a U.S. lead remains, the PRC has rapidly closed the gap in the last several years, based on a “scorecard” for assessing relative progress in quantum technologies across foundational technologies, applications, and broader technology and financial ecosystems.
The Chinese Communist Party sees quantum technologies as having “immeasurable strategic significance” and is directing resources toward their development to help reduce technological bottlenecks.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ascribes enormous strategic potential to quantum technologies. An article by the editorial board in the latest issue of its flagship theory journal, Qiushi, describes quantum as having “immeasurable strategic significance for … promoting the leapfrog development of industries” (对于 … 推动产业跨越式发展具有不可估量的战略意义). Underscoring the Party’s competitive—and even existential—framing for gaining an advantage in these technologies, the article describes quantum as a technology that can help “fundamentally solve problems such as being ‘strangled’ by technological bottlenecks (从根本上解决“卡脖子”等问题) (Qiushi, May 31).
Measuring progress in quantum technologies within the People’s Republic of China (PRC) relative to that of the United States is fraught. State media constantly touts breakthroughs and developments in dramatic terms. [1] A comparative look at advances in the key constituent elements that underpin quantum technologies establishes that the United States leads where it matters most for near-term computing capability, while the PRC leads in near-term communications security. In almost all areas where the United States has the advantage, however, the PRC is rapidly closing the gap. Its advance is based on a decade-long effort of policy attention and support, as the author has documented previously (China Brief, May 15).
The Strategic Scorecard
The best way to assess the current state of play in the U.S.–PRC quantum race is to track a small set of measurable benchmarks. Table 1 below presents a scorecard to measure progress as of April 2026. It focuses on 11 metrics divided into three areas: the level of development in foundational quantum technologies, the extent of practical applications of quantum technologies, and the maturity of the broader ecosystem for quantum technologies.
The scorecard, as illustrated in Figure 1, shows that the race is currently very close. The United States leads on four of the 11 metrics, but the PRC leads on five (they are effectively tied on the other two). These 11 metrics are not all evenly weighted, however, and the two countries’ strengths indicate a divergence in focus. The PRC leads in applying quantum technologies, especially secure communications network infrastructure, while U.S. strengths are evident in foundational research breakthroughs.
One leading indicator of eventual capability (included in the scorecard) is “quantum advantage.” This refers to a quantum computer’s superiority over any classical machine. Two PRC hardware platforms have produced world-record results in the past year on this dimension: the superconducting Zuchongzhi 3.0 processor and the photonic Jiuzhang 4.0 (Liu et al., 2025). The latter result is striking, claiming to have performed a function that would take a classical machine an estimated 10⁴² years, 17 orders of magnitude beyond Google’s Willow. Although these measurements are not set in stone (simulation methods continue to be refined, meaning that advantages claimed tend to be retroactively narrowed), the disparity indicates the strength of the PRC quantum sector.
Table 1: Comparison of Current U.S. and PRC Progress Across Quantum Benchmarks
Metric U.S. Best PRC Best Leader Trend Foundational TechnologyQubit Scale (superconducting)IBM 1,121q (2023); Nighthawk 120q perf. (2025)ZC-3.2: 107q (Dec 2025)Unites States (scale)StableGate Accuracy (two-qubit, simultaneous)99.88% (Google Willow, 2024)99.62% (ZC-3.0, 2025)United StatesPRC closing inError Correction (below-threshold)Crossed Dec 2024 (Λ ≈ 2.91)Crossed Dec 2025 (Λ = 1.40)United States (first; higher Λ)PRC now crossing thresholdQubit Stability (coherence time)~68 µs (Google Willow)~72 µs...