Coronavirus and Credibility -->

April 2020

I recently saw a<br>video<br>of TV journalists and politicians confidently<br>saying that the coronavirus would be no worse than the flu. What<br>struck me about it was not just how mistaken they seemed, but how<br>daring. How could they feel safe saying such things?

The answer, I realized, is that they didn't think they could get<br>caught. They didn't realize there was any danger in making false<br>predictions. These people constantly make false predictions, and<br>get away with it, because the things they make predictions about<br>either have mushy enough outcomes that they can bluster their way<br>out of trouble, or happen so far in the future that few remember<br>what they said.

An epidemic is different. It falsifies your predictions rapidly and<br>unequivocally.

But epidemics are rare enough that these people clearly<br>didn't realize this was even a possibility. Instead they just<br>continued to use their ordinary m.o., which, as the epidemic has<br>made clear, is to talk confidently about things they don't<br>understand.

An event like this is thus a uniquely powerful way of taking people's<br>measure. As Warren Buffett said, "It's only when the tide goes out<br>that you learn who's been swimming naked." And the tide has just<br>gone out like never before.

Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw, because<br>this is the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have. I hope.

Finnish Translation<br>German Translation<br>French Translation