[2606.14484] Quantum Horizon: An evaluation of quantum computing as a threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum

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Quantum Physics

arXiv:2606.14484 (quant-ph)

[Submitted on 12 Jun 2026]

Title:Quantum Horizon: An evaluation of quantum computing as a threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum

Authors:Iosif M. Gershteyn, Jacob A. Alber<br>View a PDF of the paper titled Quantum Horizon: An evaluation of quantum computing as a threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum, by Iosif M. Gershteyn and Jacob A. Alber

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Abstract:Quantum computing poses a real, broad-based, but bounded and substantially mitigable threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum. We separate the two quantum algorithms that public discussion routinely conflates: Shor's algorithm breaks the elliptic-curve signatures (ECDSA over secp256k1, BLS over BLS12-381) that authorize spending, whereas Grover's algorithm does not meaningfully threaten proof-of-work mining, which is protected by a merely quadratic speedup, fault-tolerant per-operation costs, a square-root parallelization wall, and difficulty adjustment. Folding hardware scaling, the falling resource requirement, a fault-tolerance readiness lag, and expert surveys into a single Monte-Carlo forecast yields a wide, bimodal arrival distribution for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer: about a one-in-six chance by 2035, near 30% by 2040, and about 60% by 2050. Exposure is concentrated and mostly migratable: of Bitcoin's roughly six million quantum-exposed coins only about 2.3 million are irreducibly at risk, while 50 to 65% of Ether sits at key-revealed accounts that can adopt post-quantum signatures. A timely migration beats even an optimistic 2035 machine, so the binding constraint is governance, not technology. A survey of the top twenty cryptocurrencies finds none fully post-quantum. Reproducible models accompany every quantitative claim.

Comments:<br>21 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables. Reproducible model code, data, and figures: this https URL

Subjects:

Quantum Physics (quant-ph); Risk Management (q-fin.RM)

Cite as:<br>arXiv:2606.14484 [quant-ph]

(or<br>arXiv:2606.14484v1 [quant-ph] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.14484

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arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history<br>From: Iosif Gershteyn [view email]<br>[v1]<br>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 14:21:58 UTC (173 KB)

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