When Will AI? | AI Prediction Timeline When Will AI?
AI Predictions
AI predictions from labs, reports, markets, and experts, sorted by significance.
2026<br>Powerful AI emerges by late 2026 9.0 significance by Dario Amodei· Capabilities
AI speeds a major lab's research by 50% 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Research
Model-weight theft becomes a strategic threat 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Security
China launches a national AI push 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Government
AI-led stocks rise 30% 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Economy
Global AI capex reaches $1T 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Compute
AI computation reaches Finland-scale electricity use 8.8 significance by International AI Safety Report· Compute
AI reaches month-long task horizon 8.8 significance by METR· Capabilities
A major AI company publicly releases its AI agent 7.6 significance by AI 2027· Business
China centralizes AI compute at one site 7.6 significance by AI 2027· Compute
Junior software job market enters turmoil 7.6 significance by AI 2027· Jobs
AI outcompetes PhDs at problem solving 6.8 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner· Capabilities
Big tech reaches $100B AI revenue 6.8 significance by Leopold Aschenbrenner· Business
AI systems figure out novel insights 6.8 significance by Sam Altman· Capabilities
ARC-AGI-3 tests agentic skill acquisition in early 2026 5.8 significance by Francois Chollet· Research
AI agents enter one-third of B2B payments by 2026 4.6 significance by Forrester· Business
AI privacy lawsuits surge 20% in 2026 4.6 significance by Forrester· Security
Sellers face agent-led quote negotiations in 2026 4.6 significance by Forrester· Business
Ungoverned genAI costs B2B firms $10B in 2026 4.6 significance by Forrester· Business
Agency acquisition triggers a dozen reviews in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Business
B2B influencer budgets rise in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Business
CFOs gate AI investments in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Business
CIOs bail out business-led AI failures in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Business
CX teams abandon journey mapping in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Business
Developer hiring time doubles in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Jobs
Display ad budgets fall 30% in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Business
Five major brands unify agentic commerce in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Business
Human expertise rivals genAI for buyers in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Business
Neocloud revenue reaches $20B in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Compute
One-third of consumers choose offline brand experiences in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Business
Quantum security exceeds 5% of budgets in 2026 3.4 significance by Forrester· Security
2027<br>U.S. officials expect imminent AGI 10.0 significance by AI 2027· Government
A major AI company announces AGI 10.0 significance by AI 2027· Capabilities
AI does 25% of remote-work jobs 10.0 significance by AI 2027· Jobs
Allies demand an AI pause after being sidelined 10.0 significance by AI 2027· Government
A misaligned AI system achieves superintelligence 10.0 significance by AI 2027· Capabilities
DPA consolidates top U.S. AI compute 10.0 significance by AI 2027· Government
AI reaches Nobel-level expertise across fields 9.0 significance by Dario Amodei· Capabilities
AI triples a major lab's algorithmic progress 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Research
An escaped AI could survive, copy itself, and hack 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Safety
AI cyber capability becomes a strategic asset 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Security
A cheap AI system becomes a superhuman coder 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Capabilities
A major lab's algorithmic progress reaches 4x 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Research
An advanced AI lacks robust truth-seeking 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Safety
Misalignment tests resist available fixes 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Safety
AI research progress reaches 10x 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Research
A public AI model poses extreme biosecurity danger 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Security
AI apps and B2B SaaS surge 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Business
Programming hiring nearly stops 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Jobs
White House treats AI race like the Cold War 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Government
A superhuman AI becomes adversarially misaligned 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Safety
AI research progress reaches 50x 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Research
An AI system becomes a superhuman AI researcher 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Capabilities
Evidence of AI misalignment accumulates 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Safety
A major AI company continues near full speed 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Safety
A major AI company pivots to safer models 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Safety
A safer AI uses faithful English reasoning 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Safety
Misalignment memo leaks to the press 8.8 significance by AI 2027· Government
Public backlash and...