Job Postings Aren’t Jobs

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Photo by Zulfugar Karimov via Unsplash

Job postings data have become one of the most widely used sources of real-time labor market information. Researchers, policymakers, and workforce agencies increasingly rely on them to understand employer demand for skills and develop occupational projections and taxonomies. They do so, in part, because vendors have successfully marketed them as providing pinpoint-accurate real-time data.

But do those data live up to their promise?

Not entirely. Job ads contain considerable sources of noise, and one could even say that they add noise at the source of analysis. They also require researchers to convert unstructured text into reliable, structured data, which is no easy task. But they are nevertheless useful, especially when researchers are given access to unprocessed, transparent data.

Signal vs. Noise

The noise in job ads takes many forms, but perhaps the most glaring is inconsistency in the types of data that employers choose to include. Many job ads are missing key information about required skills and education. A recent analysis found that a typical job ad contains fewer than 200 words arguably related to skills, out of roughly 1,000 words on average, while some ads are virtually bare and contain little or no information on skills. A more rigorous analysis found that few ads contain useful salary information, and the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) previously found that only about 40% contain information about education level.

The sources of noise begin with the ads’ creation. When an HR department creates a job ad, they intend for it to solicit applications, not generate labor market information. Even so, we know of no analysis that explores the degree to which job ads lead to successful hires. And an HR department may be subject to various organizational mandates – as well as legal requirements, which may differ substantially across state lines – that have little connection to the actual job. In addition, some firms post job openings even when there is no actual job to fill (“résumé harvesting”) or when the preferred candidate has been predetermined, while others hire without ever posting open positions. Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), Steven Davis and colleagues found that “establishments reporting zero vacancies at month’s end” make up more than 40% “of all hires in the next month.” This suggests that hiring depends heavily on passive recruiting or nontraditional channels rather than on job postings.

Ultimately, vendors need to translate job ads into usable data. Most vendors are not entirely transparent about how, or how well, they accomplish this; for instance, they do not publicize their error rates. Nonetheless, job ads do contain useful signals. In a 2014 report on online job postings, CEW compared job ads to JOLTS data and concluded that the two series move together, indicating that job ads can be a good indicator of demand. The same report found that the most reliable data fields within job ads were 70 to 80% accurate.

The public needs better information about the accuracy of job ad–based labor market information, especially as it grows in importance. The Bureau of Labor Statistics should provide guidance on the accuracy of this information. Job postings data could provide answers to many questions, but if the data elements derived from job ads have low reliability, any combination of these elements will be even less reliable.

From Text to Data: Giving Job Postings a Second Life in Research

The harsh reality for researchers and analysts is that job postings, like other sources of non-survey research data, were never intended to make their way into datasets used for research. They are written to attract applicants and comply with organizational and legal norms, with little thought given to providing standardized, research-ready or machine-readable descriptions of jobs. As a result, postings vary widely in structure, terminology, and level of detail. Titles are inconsistent, requirements are embedded in free text, and an advertisement may reflect HR conventions rather than the day-to-day reality of work. For those experienced in working with this data, this lack of structure is not an anomaly but a defining feature.

When handled thoughtfully, job postings can offer those looking for granular insights into labor demand and the nature of work something truly valuable. They provide timely signals about employer preferences, emerging skills, and changing credential requirements at a scale and level of detail that few other data sources can match. Used for trend analysis, comparison across regions or occupations, policy development, or building career pathways, they can meaningfully inform research and...