Lump Sum vs DCA comparison: LS wins… or does it?
Nam Hoang
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Lump Sum vs DCA comparison: LS wins… or does it?<br>I ran a test comparing Lump Sum vs DCA for Bitcoin and Ethereum, using price data from Jan 1, 2021 to May 16, 2026.
Nam Hoang<br>May 18, 2026
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Here the test result:<br>Long-term crypto investing strategy analysis for free ↓
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Strategies tested:<br>LS = invest all capital immediately
DCA(1) = split investment over yearly intervals
DCA(6) = split investment over 6 periods per year
DCA(12) = monthly DCA
How to read the table:<br>Mean Terminal = average final portfolio value. Higher is better.
Std Terminal = how spread out the final outcomes are. Higher means more uncertainty around the result.
Sharpe = return per unit of volatility. Higher is better.
Avg Max DD = average maximum drawdown. Lower is better.
Avg Days Below Initial = average percent of time the strategy stayed below the starting capital. Lower is better.
Avg Max Days Below Initial = average longest stretch spent below starting capital. Lower is better.
Avg Days to Breakeven = average time needed to recover back to starting capital after falling below it. Lower is better.
Worst 10% Terminal Avg = average final result from the worst 10% of starting periods. Higher is better.
CVaR95 Loss = average loss in the worst 5% of outcomes. Lower is better.
Key takeaway:<br>LS wins big on return for both BTC and ETH
LS generally fails on remaining metrics , except for Avg Days Below Initial
More frequent DCA is not always better .
Question:<br>“Do we need an accumulation strategy that improves long-run survivability without giving up too much return?”<br>Deeper analysis coming…
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