[2606.19777] Have Data Centers Raised Your Electric Bill? Causal Evidence from the United States

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arXiv:2606.19777 (physics)

[Submitted on 18 Jun 2026]

Title:Have Data Centers Raised Your Electric Bill? Causal Evidence from the United States

Authors:Asa Watten, John Bistline, Geoffrey Blanford<br>View a PDF of the paper titled Have Data Centers Raised Your Electric Bill? Causal Evidence from the United States, by Asa Watten and 2 other authors

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Abstract:We estimate that data centers caused average retail electricity rates to fall modestly in the United States from 2015 to 2024 using an instrumental variables approach. Despite prevailing sentiment, the finding is consistent with economic reasoning: existing large power system fixed costs, economies of scale in transmission and distribution, and declining unit costs for generation imply that durable demand growth lowers average prices. We find patterns of economies of scale for transmission, distribution, and generation costs as well as within and across retail customer classes. We caution that future supply constraints could reverse the effect.

Subjects:

Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph); General Economics (econ.GN)

Cite as:<br>arXiv:2606.19777 [physics.soc-ph]

(or<br>arXiv:2606.19777v1 [physics.soc-ph] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.19777

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arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history<br>From: John Bistline [view email]<br>[v1]<br>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 04:24:56 UTC (8,335 KB)

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