Polls: Voters favor federal oversight of prediction markets

Polls: Voters favor federal oversight of prediction markets | Semafor

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Exclusive / Polls: Voters favor federal oversight of prediction markets

Eleanor MuellerWhite House Economic Policy Reporter, Semafor

Jun 24, 2026, 5:01am EDTJun 24, 2026, 5:01am EDT PostEmailWhatsappCopy link

Dado Ruvic/Illustration via Reuters

Voters in both parties prefer federal oversight of prediction markets to state oversight, according to a pair of polls commissioned by the industry’s Coalition for Prediction Markets and shared first with Semafor. That breaks down to 48% of Republicans who favor federal oversight versus 27% who prefer state oversight, Donald Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio’s firm found, while 45% of Democrats favor federal oversight and 35% prefer state oversight, according to the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group. The Democratic firm also found that 8% of all voters think prediction markets should be banned; 67% think adults should decide for themselves whether to use them; and 52% under the age of 35 have used them. “It’s striking that even in such a polarized environment, voters from both parties have similar perspectives on prediction markets, preferring federal regulation to a state patchwork, rejecting an outright ban, and critically, believing in freedom of choice for Americans to participate or not in these markets,” GSG’s Jefrey Pollock said in a statement. The polls come as Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig squares off with states and tribes that are trying to ban prediction markets or regulate them as they do gambling. A Politico poll recently found voters are divided on whether prediction markets are positive or negative and think it should be illegal to use them for political wagers.

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Polls: Voters favor federal oversight of prediction markets

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