An Exponential View Report · June 2026

The State of the AI Economy

For the first time, we've reconstructed the AI economy from the bottom up, capturing every real dollar of customer demand, no double-counting.

By Azeem Azhar, William Gildea, Hannah Petrovic PhD, Nathan Warren & Marija Gavrilov

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The top line

The AI economy is bigger and faster than any technology wave before it, yet still small enough to be early.

It's (just) covering the infrastructure bill.

What happens next depends on how fast demand grows as prices fall and how much real intelligence each token delivers.

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