Small satellite operators confront a bottleneck to space access - SpaceNews

Close

Search for:

Search

Close

Skip to content

Menu

Sign In

Open Search

Search for:

Search

Home / Small satellite operators confront a bottleneck to space access

A Falcon 9 lifts off Nov. 28 on the Transporter-15 rideshare mission. Credit: SpaceX

For years, small satellite manufacturers have built their business plans around the idea that SpaceX could launch their payload to space. Through its Falcon 9 Transporter and Bandwagon rideshare missions, SpaceX offered frequent, reliable and inexpensive transportation to sun-synchronous and mid-inclination orbits.

But now worry is setting in.

At least nine SpaceX partners and customers tell SpaceNews that SpaceX is not accepting Transporter reservations beyond late 2028 or early 2029, and the manifest for the next couple of years is nearly full. Some customers said they expect that SpaceX will extend Falcon 9 rideshares if its super heavy-lift Starship rocket does not come online as quickly as company leaders anticipate.

But the lack of spots — potentially as few as half as many as in recent years — has left satellite companies scrambling to find a way to space.

SpaceX did not respond to questions about the future of its rideshare flights.

“We’ve arrived at a point where launch has not achieved the cost nor the frequency the broader sector anticipated and has become a significant and dangerous bottleneck,” space consultant and angel investor Keith Masback said by email.

While secondary payloads can fly with many launch providers, none offer transportation as frequently or inexpensively as SpaceX rideshares, creating uncertainty at a time when manufacturers are producing satellites at a rate faster than launch capability is becoming available.

“There is now a huge demand for access to space and maybe not that much supply,” Valentin Benoit, chief executive for French launch integrator RIDE! Space, said in an interview. “There is a clear asymmetry between the timeline for which satellites need to be launched and what the market can provide. That could be lethal at some point.”

In late May, U.S. launch integrator SEOPS announced the purchase of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket to send small satellites to low Earth orbit in a 2028 rideshare. Three weeks later, the manifest for SEOPS’ Waymaker mission was full and approximately 30 customers were on a waitlist.

Executives warn a shortage of launch capabilities could have a series of trickle down effects throughout the industry. This could jeopardizing the future of startups, many of whom assume they will be able to choose among multiple annual rideshare flights and pay about $8,000 per kilogram.

It’s not time for panic, though, SEOPS President Evan Hoyt said in an interview. Instead, satellite operators need to consider launch along with other long-lead items about 36 months ahead of need — rather than 12 — and commit the capital necessary to book flights early.

Prices will rise

For all the uncertainty in the launch market, industry executives agree on one trickle-down effect: The price of launching small satellites is rising. Satellite operators who assume future launch costs will mirror those of SpaceX rideshares face an unpleasant surprise.

“Considering the current state of the art of the launch providers, we should all expect more [of] a price increase than a price decrease,” Benoit said. “The shortage of capacity is making the market understand better that they cannot expect the same level of prices. And it’s better to launch at twice the rate, than not to launch at all.”

Satellite operators are getting the message.

“Our customers are increasingly optimizing for factors other than price, such as orbit control, launch timing certainty, or execution risk,” Robert Sproles, chief executive of the German launch integrator Exolaunch, said by email. “Those factors become more important as constellation operators mature and scale. Therefore, we see a general trend toward accepting higher launch costs in order to support these priorities.”

Reductions in annual rideshare flights also offer opportunities for global launch providers.

“We all need to jump on the opportunity” by increasing launch cadence and managing costs, Xavier Lancel, head of marketing and business intelligence for Vega and Vega C prime contractor Avio, said in May at the SmallSat Europe conference in Amsterdam.

Into the breach

Given growing demand, companies worldwide are working to expand their supply and offer more options for getting to orbit.

Since the manifest of Europe’s Ariane 6 is fully booked for 2026 and 2027 and few slots remain for 2028, European launch provider Arianespace is preparing to offer additional capacity in 2029 and 2030. Ariane 6 is being equipped with a Multi-Launch System that will allow the rocket to send secondary payloads to multiple orbits, Arianespace Vice President Aaron Lewis said by email.

In addition, Exolaunch has...