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Reversing Ukraine's Population Loss After Four Years of War

MigrationReversing Ukraine's Population Loss After Four Years of War<br>Ukraine is facing demographic erosion and devising plans to encourage refugee returns and the birth rate

Bohdana Zhupanyna, a 30-year-old mother-to-be, stands inside her apartment that was damaged by a Russian drone strike, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 23, 2025. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko<br>by Nataliia Bushkovska<br>February 24, 2026

The global fertility rate is falling and the average age is rising, creating concerns about population loss and diminished economic capacity. In Ukraine, the situation feels even more acute. After four years of full-scale war, the east European nation faces a demographic crisis in that the death rate in 2025 outpaced the birth rate by nearly 3 to 1.

Millions have fled the country for safety, and those who remain are often hesitant amid the uncertainty and trauma to have children. In March 2025, First Deputy Minister of Social Policy Daria Marchak announced that after the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine set an "anti-record" for the number of children born per woman. Currently, this figure stands at approximately 0.9—which Marchak claims is the lowest rate in the history of the country and well below the replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1.

Amid the stop-start conversations around a ceasefire, Ukrainian officials and policymakers are devising plans to encourage refugees to return and stimulate the birth rate. These policies have been outlined in the country's strategic documents—and, crucially, emphasize voluntary return.

Ukraine's Demographic Policy Strategy through 2040 envisages the creation of cross-cutting conditions for a comfortable life in Ukraine: affordable housing, high-quality public infrastructure, a safe environment, a barrier-free environment, an inclusive labor market and social cohesion of the population, ensured equal rights and opportunities, and the freedom and dignity of citizens.

The demographic policy doesn't have a finalized price so far. As Iryna Sitnikova writes on the national media platform Hromadske, an additional 29 billion hryvnias ($703.4 million) will be needed in 2026 for childbirth payments, parental support, and the eNursery program.

Births and Deaths Before the War in Ukraine

Looking back at Ukraine's history is necessary to fully understand its demographic crisis. The country has endured devastating wars, famine, occupation, and severe economic upheavals. These traumas did not pass without consequence, and their effects continue to shape the nation's population trends and public health landscape today.

Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe by land area, experienced five demographic crises through the twentieth century

Several trends, some of which started a century ago, are reshaping the country's age structure and reducing life expectancy, which as of 2024 is estimated at approximately 56 to 57 years for men and 70 to 71 years for women, according to Dmytro Shushpanov, head of the Department of Demographic Modeling and Forecasting at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and a doctor of economic sciences.

Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe by land area, experienced five demographic crises through the twentieth century: during World War I, the famine of the 1920s, the artificial famine organized by the Soviet Union in the 1930s known as the Holodomor, World War II, and the famine of 1946–47.

Ukrainian historian Inna Kovalyshena told Think Global Health that birth rates declined in the 1960s as a consequence of the Holodomor of the 1930s. "People were not born because their potential parents had not been born or died," she added. World Bank data shows that Ukraine's fertility rate hovered around the 2.1 replacement limit until the late 1980s, when it dropped and never recovered.

In 1991, when Ukraine gained independence, its population was 52.1 million. During this period, migration was from former Soviet blocs, primarily involving people with Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar heritage.

By the time Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the population had dropped more than 10% to 45.9 million. "The decline in birth rates in Ukraine reflected broader European trends," said Olga Dukhnich, head of the Demography and Migration program at the Frontier Institute. "Since the second half of the twentieth century, people across Europe have been having fewer children. The 1990s were also years of crisis, which inevitably affected population growth."

Even before the 2022 invasion, excess mortality in Ukraine was particularly pronounced among men of conscription age, 25 to 49 years old. During the full-scale...