I Adapted the CME FedWatch Methodology to ECB, BoE and BoJ

Central Bank Rate Change Probabilities 2026 | Interest Rate Odds for Fed, ECB, BoE & More New Bank of Japan rate change probabilities are now calculated live — see what markets imply for the next BoJ meeting. View Bank of Japan → New New financial tools live: Sovereign Yield Curves · Recession Probability · National Mortgage Rate Tracker · Hawkometer Explore Tools → Federal Reserve Next Meeting Date: July 28, 2026 DAYS HRS MINS

Current Rate: 3.62% Theoretical: 4.74% Policy Stance: Accommodative View Model FRB/US → Rate Probabilities CME FedWatch ToolView official FOMC rate probabilities based on Fed Funds futures View on CME Group *For interpretation and methodology of probabilities, click here.

European Central Bank Next Meeting Date: July 23, 2026 DAYS HRS MINS

Current Rate: 2.25% Theoretical: 4.69% Policy Stance: Accommodative View Model NAWM/NMCM → Rate Change Probabilities* &nearr; Rate Hike 75.0% → No Change 25.0% &searr; Rate Cut 0.0%

*For interpretation and methodology of probabilities, click here.

Bank of England Next Meeting Date: July 30, 2026 DAYS HRS MINS

Current Rate: 3.75% Theoretical: 6.49% Policy Stance: Accommodative View Model COMPASS → Rate Change Probabilities* &nearr; Rate Hike 27.8% → No Change 72.2% &searr; Rate Cut 0.0%

*For interpretation and methodology of probabilities, click here.

Reserve Bank of Australia Next Meeting Date: July 7, 2026 DAYS HRS MINS

Current Rate: 4.31% Theoretical: 5.62% Policy Stance: Accommodative View Model MARTIN → Rate Change Probabilities* &nearr; Rate Hike 36.0% → No Change 64.0% &searr; Rate Cut 0.0%

*For interpretation and methodology of probabilities, click here.

Bank of Japan Next Meeting Date: July 30, 2026 DAYS HRS MINS

Current Rate: 0.30% Theoretical: 0.83% Policy Stance: Neutral Rate Change Probabilities* &nearr; Rate Hike 36.0% → No Change 64.0% &searr; Rate Cut 0.0%

*For interpretation and methodology of probabilities, click here.

Reserve Bank of India Next Meeting Date: August 5, 2026 DAYS HRS MINS

Current Rate: 5.25% Theoretical: 7.08% Policy Stance: Accommodative

Bank of Canada Next Meeting Date: July 15, 2026 DAYS HRS MINS

Current Rate: 5.25% Theoretical: 3.83% Policy Stance: Restrictive

🌍Global Outlook Comparative Analysis Cross-jurisdictional --DAYS --HRS --MINS

Average Rate: 3.56% Policy Divergence: Moderate Synchronization: 35%

Financial Tools & Trackers New Open Tools Hub → New Sovereign Yield Curves 9 countries · full term structure US 2s10s: +0.31pp View curves → New Recession Probability NY Fed probit model US 12m: 18.5% Open dashboard → New Mortgage Rate Tracker 7 countries · transmission US 30-Year Fixed: 6.55% View tracker → New Hawkometer Speech sentiment · 9 banks Fed lean: neutral (+0.9) Open hawkometer →

European Central Bank

Bank of England

Reserve Bank of Australia

Bank of Japan

Global Outlook European Central Bank — Expected Rate Path Market-implied policy rate trajectory based on futures-derived meeting probabilities

Chart data not yet available "}'> Rate Path Analysis Next Meeting European Central Bank July 23, 2026 Shows the most likely policy rate at each future meeting date. Compares current expectations with those from 1 week and 4 weeks ago. Detailed Analysis →

Bank of England — Expected Rate Path Market-implied Bank Rate trajectory based on SONIA futures-derived meeting probabilities

Chart data not yet available "}'> Rate Path Analysis Next Meeting Bank of England July 30, 2026 Shows the most likely policy rate at each future meeting date. Compares current expectations with those from 1 week and 4 weeks ago. Detailed Analysis →

Reserve Bank of Australia — Expected Rate Path Market-implied Cash Rate trajectory based on ASX futures-derived meeting probabilities

Chart data not yet available "}'> Rate Path Analysis Next Meeting Reserve Bank of Australia July 7, 2026 Shows the most likely policy rate at each future meeting date. Compares current expectations with those from 1 week and 4 weeks ago. Detailed Analysis →

Bank of Japan — Expected Rate Path Market-implied policy rate trajectory based on TONA futures-derived meeting probabilities

Chart data not yet available "}'> Rate Path Analysis Next Meeting Bank of Japan July 30, 2026 Shows the most likely policy rate at each future meeting date. Compares current expectations with those from 1 week and 4 weeks ago. Detailed Analysis →

Global Rate Outlook Expected rate change paths (in basis points from current rate) for ECB, BoE, and RBA

Chart data not yet available "}'> Policy Divergence Tracker Current Policy Stance European Central Bank: Accommodative Bank of England: Accommodative Reserve Bank of Australia: Accommodative Global Analysis →

Latest Central Bank News Real-time news monitoring across Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England

Federal Reserve 20 articles Powell, Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell Federal...

I Adapted the CME FedWatch Methodology to ECB, BoE and BoJ

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