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Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends
June 30, 2026
AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector
About the Author
Torsten<br>Slok
Partner, Chief Economist
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The first chart below shows that so far there are no signs of profit margins rising outside the tech sector . This is ultimately what we are waiting for, because the value of AI companies today rests entirely on the promise that margins in the S&P 493 will eventually climb.<br>That promise is the link to current market prices, since implicit in the valuations of AI companies are assumptions about future earnings. That's why the current debate about token costs, model routing and...