I built a page showing the likelihood of the AI bubble to pop

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Is the AI hype cooling down?

Live signal index

Is the AI hype cooling down?

❄ Cooling

Overheating 🔥

A composite reading of physical build-out and platform economics. Higher means the<br>expansion is still intensifying; lower means the momentum is fading.<br>Here's what goes into it.

See the breakdown

What the answer is built from

Five independent signals, each weighted by how directly it reflects real, committed<br>demand. Each is scored from 0 (contracting) to 100 (surging).

The trajectory

Where the money and the megawatts are actually going.

Combined infrastructure spend, per quarter

Billions of dollars

Spend by operator

$B / quarter

New data-center power queued

Gigawatts / year

Total new power capacity queued

Gigawatts / year

Where data-center load is landing

GW in queue, top regions

Where it could actually jam

Demand is only half the story. Even with the money flowing, the build-out runs into hard<br>physical limits — and four of them govern how fast AI compute can be poured. Here's how<br>binding each becomes year by year through 2030, and the companies with the most leverage<br>over each chokepoint.

How binding<br>easing<br>tight<br>severe<br>binding<br>· hover a year for detail

Company names indicate supply-chain exposure to each bottleneck — illustrative, not investment<br>advice. Trajectory synthesized from IEA, McKinsey, SemiAnalysis, SK Group and industry<br>commentary (2024–2026).

year cooling from binding built hype

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