Falling fertility on the left as key driver of US birth decline | Scientific Reports

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Falling fertility on the left as key driver of US birth decline

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Evolution<br>Psychology

Abstract<br>Political orientation has been shown to correlate with fertility, raising the possibility that demographic processes contribute to long-term ideological change. Using data from the US General Social Survey, we analyze completed fertility across 17 birth cohorts (1898–1982) to examine how political orientation has contributed to fertility decline in the United States and whether emerging selective forces can be detected. Earlier cohorts show little difference in fertility by political orientation. From the 1943–1947 birth cohort onward, however, a pronounced divergence emerges: individuals with right-wing political orientations maintain fertility at or above replacement level, whereas fertility among left-wing individuals declines sharply to well below replacement. Applying Lande–Arnold selection gradient analyses, we find increasing directional selection that may favor right-wing political orientation over time, while education shows consistent negative associations with fertility and religiosity positive but weaker effects. Separate analysis of Black and White Americans reveals, however, that the increasingly stronger association between political orientation and fertility in more recent cohorts holds only true for whites but not for blacks. Nonetheless, these findings suggest that recent fertility decline in the United States is driven disproportionately by left-leaning individuals and point to contemporary demographic processes that may gradually shift the ideological composition of populations.

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Acknowledgements<br>This research uses data from the General Social Survey (GSS), conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. The GSS is funded primarily by the National Science Foundation, with additional support from other organizations and agencies. The findings and conclusions presented here are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NORC or the National Science Foundation.

Funding<br>We had no funding for this work.

Author information<br>Authors and Affiliations<br>Department of Evolutionary Anthropology, University of Vienna, Djerassiplatz 1, 1030, Vienna, Austria<br>Martin Fieder & Susanne Huber

AuthorsMartin FiederView author publications<br>Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Susanne HuberView author publications<br>Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author<br>Correspondence to<br>Martin Fieder.

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Cite this article<br>Fieder, M., Huber, S. Falling...