You Asked: What Exactly Is a ‘Super’ El Niño? – State of the Planet

Skip to content

State of the Planet

News from the Columbia Climate School

Climate, Natural Disasters, Water

You Asked: What Exactly Is a ‘Super’ El Niño?

Tracy J. Wholf<br>Guest

June 9, 2026

No comments on You Asked: What Exactly Is a ‘Super’ El Niño?

June 1 marks the beginning of hurricane season, but recent news headlines have been dominated by another ocean-related phenomenon: El Niño. And many experts are saying this El Niño is shaping up to be a strong or “super” one.

It sounds ominous, especially after a winter where residents of New York City saw one of the coldest and snowiest seasons in a decade. Yet elsewhere, including parts of Texas and the Plains, residents saw record warmth and severe drought during this same period. If such stark contrasts can occur during a time when scientists are forecasting relatively weak El Niño conditions, what could be coming if a true “super” El Niño develops?

Central Kalimantan, Indonesia—September 30, 2015. A bush fire burns along a roadside in Palangka Raya during Indonesia’s severe 2015 fire season, which was intensified by drought conditions associated with a strong El Niño. Credit: Didindan Bintang / iStock

What is El Niño?

In short, El Niño is “a change in the surface water temperatures in the tropical Pacific,” says Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, an associate research scientist at the Columbia Climate School. If the water is warmer than usual, that can trigger an El Niño effect. Colder than usual often leads to La Niña.

What causes these shifts in ocean water temperature? They are part of a naturally occurring climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. Normally, trade winds blow west along the Earth’s equator, pushing warm water from South America toward Asia. But sometimes the trade winds weaken and warm water “sloshes” back toward South America. This results in warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and significant changes in global weather patterns—among them milder winters in the northern United States and wetter conditions in the southern parts of the country.

The phrase El Niño “comes from Spanish meaning ‘Christ Child’” says Mingfang Ting, a professor of climate at the Columbia Climate School. “This phenomenon usually happens around Christmas time,” when El Niño often peaks.

During an El Niño episode, areas in green or yellow are likely to become wetter or dryer than normal during the indicated months. Credit: Columbia IRI

Frequently, a La Niña climate pattern will emerge after an El Niño one. This happens when the east-to-west trade winds strengthen and push warm surface water farther west, toward Indonesia and Australia. When this happens, cold water rushes up from the deep ocean near South America to replace the warm water. These shifts can alter weather patterns not just in these areas, but all over the world. During La Niña, for example, winters in the northern U.S tend to be cooler and wetter, while the southern part of the country experiences warmer, drier conditions.

When sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are neither abnormally warm nor cold, the climate system is said to be in an ENSO neutral phase. The cycle of El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO neutral does not occur on a regular schedule, but it typically happens every two to seven years and each phase lasts an average of nine to twelve months.

From December 2025 through February 2026, the Pacific experienced a weak La Niña phase that began to transition into ENSO neutral conditions. There is an 82 percent chance that El Niño will emerge this summer and last through the end of 2026, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Scientists are confident El Niño will emerge. “The tropical Pacific is already showing several classic early warning signs,” says Ehsan. “Subsurface ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have become significantly warmer than average, and that excess heat is beginning to rise toward the surface—a key ingredient for El Niño formation.”

But what’s capturing everyone’s attention is NOAA’s prediction that there is, as of press time, a 37 percent chance that a “very strong” El Niño event could develop later this year.

What will a very strong El Niño mean for the U.S.?

A “very strong” El Niño means the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean around the equator are more than 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average. When scientists study ENSO, they look at how much the Pacific sea-surface temperatures deviate from long-term averages to classify a system’s intensity:

Weak: 0.5 to 0.9 °C warmer than normal

Moderate: 1.0 to 1.4 °C warmer than normal

Strong: 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C greater than normal

Very Strong: Anomalies exceeding 2.0 °C

Since 1980, there have only been three El Niño events classified as “very strong” or “super.”

The 1982-1983 El Niño was called “the...