Collapse of Atlantic Currents May Already Be ‘Locked In’ - Yale E360
Close
← →
Search<br>Search
E360 Digest
July 7, 2026
Collapse of Atlantic Currents May Already Be ‘Locked In’
Ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Warmer colors indicate higher temperatures.<br>NASA
A vast system of Atlantic currents that delivers warmth to northern Europe is at risk of collapse, according to a growing body of research. The latest study to warn of its demise finds there is at least a 10 percent chance that a collapse may already be “locked in.”<br>The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, ferries warm water from the tropics to northern Europe. As the water cools, it becomes more dense and drops to the ocean depths, where it flows south, back toward the tropics. But as oceans warm, those waters are not so cool, or so dense, as they once were, causing the system of ocean circulation to slow down. At the same time, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is introducing large amounts of fresh water, which is less dense than salty water, further slowing circulation.<br>By one estimate, if the AMOC were to collapse, its flow slowing to a near halt, temperatures in northern Europe would drop by 9 to 27 degrees F (5 to 15 degrees C).<br>The new modeling study found that even in a scenario where global emissions peaked in 2025 and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet raises sea levels by just 2 inches this century, there is a 10 percent chance that the AMOC will eventually collapse. In scenarios where the Greenland ice sheet unleashes more meltwater, the probability of collapse rises to 23 percent, according to the study, which has not yet undergone peer review.<br>Coauthor Tim Lenton, of the University of Exeter, told New Scientist, “What the model is saying to me is, ‘Let’s do everything in our power to get to net-zero as quickly as possible to try to keep this probability down at the 10 percent level.’”<br>ALSO ON YALE E360<br>Why Fears Are Growing Over the Fate of a Key Atlantic Current
Related Articles
In East Africa, a Controversial Oil Project Is Poised for Production
By Fred Pearce
A Missing Piece in Climate Models: Nature’s Own Emissions
By James Dinneen
Efforts to Save Kelp Forests from Ocean Warming Are Ramping Up
By Richard Schiffman
More From E360
INTERVIEW
What Do We Actually Know About the Microplastics Inside Us?
Energy
A Home Battery Revolution Is Reshaping the Power Grid
Energy
In East Africa, a Controversial Oil Project Is Poised for Production
Climate
A Missing Piece in Climate Models: Nature’s Own Emissions
INTERVIEW
An EPA Researcher Details the Agency’s Assault on Science
Oceans
Efforts to Save Kelp Forests from Ocean Warming Are Ramping Up
Biodiversity
Pollution Is Changing the Smells of Nature, With Risks for Wildlife
Oceans
Supertrawlers Are Taking Antarctic Krill That Whales Depend On
INTERVIEW
The U.S. Senator Who Won’t Shut Up about Climate Change
Energy
A First Among Major Nations, India Is Industrializing With Solar
A NOTE FROM THE EDITOR
After Two Decades, E360’s Founder and Editor Is Moving On
Solutions
Restoring the Flow: A Milestone in the Revival of the Everglades