GitHub - sgInnora/wc2026-prediction-ledger: Receipt-verified AI prediction ledger for World Cup 2026: pre-kickoff sha256-locked forecasts scored vs results, with calibration + market baselines. Live: goalpulse.io/open-data · GitHub
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World Cup 2026 — Receipt-Verified AI Prediction Ledger
Every pre-kickoff AI forecast for FIFA World Cup 2026 published by GoalPulse, locked in immutable snapshots with sha256 receipts before kickoff and scored against official results. Misses included — nothing hidden.
Live source (updates hourly through the final): https://goalpulse.io/open-data<br>Human-readable track record & calibration: https://goalpulse.io/ai-track-record
What's here
prediction-ledger.json — every scored forecast: W/D/L probabilities, actual result, per-row multiclass Brier, calibration buckets, and baselines (model vs de-vig market closing consensus vs uniform 1/3).
prediction-ledger.csv — same rows, flat.
knockout-simulation.json — exact bracket-DP championship probabilities from the current shadow model.
Honesty notes
Forecasts are from an editorial shadow model (calibrated Elo). On the joined rows the market closing consensus still beats the model (Brier ≈0.446 vs ≈0.499) — we publish the comparison anyway; that's the point.
Draws in knockout propagation are split proportionally to 90-minute win probabilities (shootout proxy).
Not betting odds. Not betting advice.
License
Free to use with attribution: cite GoalPulse (goalpulse.io) and link to https://goalpulse.io/open-data.
Snapshot in this repo: 2026-07-08. For the freshest data, always pull the live endpoints above.
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Receipt-verified AI prediction ledger for World Cup 2026: pre-kickoff sha256-locked forecasts scored vs results, with calibration + market baselines. Live: goalpulse.io/open-data
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