[2501.16946] Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development

Skip to main content

arXiv is now an independent nonprofit!<br>Learn more<br>&times;

Search arXiv

Press Enter to search &middot; Advanced search

-->

Computer Science > Computers and Society

arXiv:2501.16946 (cs)

[Submitted on 28 Jan 2025 (v1), last revised 29 Jan 2025 (this version, v2)]

Title:Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development

Authors:Jan Kulveit, Raymond Douglas, Nora Ammann, Deger Turan, David Krueger, David Duvenaud<br>View a PDF of the paper titled Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development, by Jan Kulveit and 4 other authors

View PDF<br>HTML (experimental)

Abstract:This paper examines the systemic risks posed by incremental advancements in artificial intelligence, developing the concept of `gradual disempowerment', in contrast to the abrupt takeover scenarios commonly discussed in AI safety. We analyze how even incremental improvements in AI capabilities can undermine human influence over large-scale systems that society depends on, including the economy, culture, and nation-states. As AI increasingly replaces human labor and cognition in these domains, it can weaken both explicit human control mechanisms (like voting and consumer choice) and the implicit alignments with human interests that often arise from societal systems' reliance on human participation to function. Furthermore, to the extent that these systems incentivise outcomes that do not line up with human preferences, AIs may optimize for those outcomes more aggressively. These effects may be mutually reinforcing across different domains: economic power shapes cultural narratives and political decisions, while cultural shifts alter economic and political behavior. We argue that this dynamic could lead to an effectively irreversible loss of human influence over crucial societal systems, precipitating an existential catastrophe through the permanent disempowerment of humanity. This suggests the need for both technical research and governance approaches that specifically address the risk of incremental erosion of human influence across interconnected societal systems.

Comments:<br>19 pages, 2 figures

Subjects:

Computers and Society (cs.CY)

Cite as:<br>arXiv:2501.16946 [cs.CY]

(or<br>arXiv:2501.16946v2 [cs.CY] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2501.16946

Focus to learn more

arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

Submission history<br>From: Jan Kulveit [view email]<br>[v1]<br>Tue, 28 Jan 2025 13:45:41 UTC (2,913 KB)

[v2]<br>Wed, 29 Jan 2025 14:58:49 UTC (2,913 KB)

Full-text links:<br>Access Paper:

View a PDF of the paper titled Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development, by Jan Kulveit and 4 other authors<br>View PDF<br>HTML (experimental)<br>TeX Source

view license

Current browse context:

cs.CY

next >

new<br>recent<br>| 2025-01

Change to browse by:

cs

References & Citations

NASA ADS<br>Google Scholar

Semantic Scholar

export BibTeX citation<br>Loading...

BibTeX formatted citation

&times;

loading...

Data provided by:

Bookmark

Bibliographic Tools

Bibliographic and Citation Tools

Bibliographic Explorer Toggle

Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?)

Connected Papers Toggle

Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?)

Litmaps Toggle

Litmaps (What is Litmaps?)

scite.ai Toggle

scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?)

Code, Data, Media

Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article

alphaXiv Toggle

alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?)

Links to Code Toggle

CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?)

DagsHub Toggle

DagsHub (What is DagsHub?)

GotitPub Toggle

Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?)

Huggingface Toggle

Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?)

ScienceCast Toggle

ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?)

Demos

Demos

Replicate Toggle

Replicate (What is Replicate?)

Spaces Toggle

Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?)

Spaces Toggle

TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?)

Related Papers

Recommenders and Search Tools

Link to Influence Flower

Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?)

Core recommender toggle

CORE Recommender (What is CORE?)

Author

Venue

Institution

Topic

About arXivLabs

arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs .

Which authors of this paper are endorsers? |<br>Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)

Major funding support from