Tech jobs market in 2026, part 3: hiring managers & job seekers

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Deepdives<br>Tech jobs market in 2026, part 3: hiring managers & job seekers<br>The market where nobody finds each other, the hottest market for AI-related positions, tough for engineering leaders, and more. Based on details from 50+ hiring managers & job seekers

Gergely Orosz<br>Jul 07, 2026<br>∙ Paid

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What is the tech jobs market like for job seekers and hiring managers today? It’s a broad question for which one answer is that it’s a land of contrasts and confusion, and also some crossed wires. Experienced engineers and managers feel ghosted by employers and recruiters, who in turn have given up on inbound applications because their inboxes are full of AI slop, sometimes from bogus candidates. It’s rosier for those with specific skillsets, who are in strong demand – and personal networks help more than ever to land the right job.<br>For this final part of our series on the tech hiring market during the first half of 2026, I spoke with more than 50 hiring managers, software engineers, and engineering leaders. Thank you to everyone who contributed!<br>For more on this topic, check out our analysis of what the data says about the market in Part 1 and Part 2 of this mini-series.<br>Overall, an appropriate description of the employment market as many folks experience it right now would be “weird”. This is a characteristic that’s not easy to see in the data, but is clear from talking to people and hearing their anecdotal, personal accounts of job hunting this year. I think the data in the first two articles of this series failed to capture just how unusual things are. So, in today’s issue, we attempt to shed some light on the weirdness, covering:<br>“Catch-22:” nobody finds each other. Hiring managers struggle to find experienced folks, who barely get any replies when applying for jobs. How’s that work?

No trust. Is AI to blame? AI-enhanced resumes read as incredible, but hiring managers often face disappointment. Some places don’t bother reading inbound applications as a result.

Hot market for some, but tough for most . For those in AI Engineering, ML, or FDE, the market is incredible. For everyone else, it’s much less great.

Higher hiring bar & lower compensation – but not for everyone. Many candidates are unhappy with offers that are the lowest in years. This doesn’t apply to AI Engineering positions or at AI businesses, however.

Engineering leader recruitment: also weird for senior ICs. Senior engineering leaders are struggling to find opportunities, or may turn them down in favor of fractional roles or to work on their own startup.

US market trends. Folks experiencing the “best market ever” are likely in the US, where a talent shortage is a bigger complaint than it is elsewhere.

Trends in the UK, EU, and rest of the world. “Ghosting” is more commonplace than in the US, “fake applicants” a bigger issue, remote roles are going extinct, and more.

For more details on the hiring market, see also:<br>Part 1: what the data says:<br>Software engineering recruitment: trending up, mostly

Big Tech and publicly-traded companies

Who’s hiring the most software engineers?

AI engineering: explosive demand

Who’s hiring the most AI engineers?

Is AI engineering replacing software engineering hiring?

Part 2, what the data says, continuied:<br>Top AI labs are now more attractive than Big Tech

Harder for new grads & interns to get hired

Mobile and frontend demand drops, AI & FDE surges

AI engineering comp > software engineering comp

Management’s “great flattening” continues

Big Tech seniority & tenure keep rising

Interview preparation signups: what do they indicate?

Where engineers go after Big Tech

1. “Catch-22:” nobody finds each other

The phrase “Catch 22” refers to a paradoxical problem, whose solution is blocked by the problem itself. The term originated in a famous World War II novel of the same name, and it also describes pretty accurately what I see in today’s tech job market. Hiring managers are saying that highly-skilled talent (typically senior+ engineers) is not available to be recruited, at the same time as experienced, proven professionals find their applications ignored by employers.<br>What seems paradoxical here is how both can be true. It’s as if recruiters and potential candidates aren’t hearing each other. Of course, there’s some nuance:

My take on the hiring market<br>Mike Julian, CEO of DuckBill Group, which is hiring software engineers, replied to my post with this observation:<br>“We get about 1,000 applications a day on inbound and maybe two of them are even relevant to the posting.

I mostly no longer look at inbound seriously because it’s so c***. I’d almost certainly miss a great inbound submission if it came in.<br>All of our recent hires have been via network and us reaching out to folk on LinkedIn. Biggest hurdle we have to outreach is thin LinkedIn profiles and little other online presence.”

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