The Iran War threatened a food crisis with soaring fertilizer costs.
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N7itrogen is everywhere, all the time.<br>It's 78% of the atmosphere.<br>It’s three-quarters of the air we breathe.<br>But this gas is essentially useless.<br>The nitrogen we exhale is an odorless, colorless, tasteless, non-combustible and nontoxic gas.<br>Yet this inert, invisible, mostly worthless gas has, by way of modern chemistry, come to support about 3.5-4 billion people.<br>Or roughly every other person currently breathing.
NITROGEN N2 OXYGEN O2
In the late 1800s, scientists worried that shortages of fertilizer for crops could cause global famine. But between 1909 and 1913, two German scientists developed the Haber-Bosch Process. This lifts nitrogen gas from the air, splits it with pressure and heat from natural gas, and creates ammonia. This powerful fertilizer became critical for wheat, corn and rice varieties. When these crops absorbed that synthetic fertilizer, yields soared.<br>There will always be enough nitrogen, so fertilizer of this sort is plentiful as long as natural gas is available.
Nitrogen fertilizer use in agriculture
100<br>Mt
80
60
40
20
1960
1970
1980
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2000
2010
2020
Green revolution
100<br>Mt
80
60
40
20
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
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1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Green revolution
100<br>Mt
80
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1965
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1995
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2005
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Green revolution
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The line chart shows nitrogen fertilizer use in agriculture in million tonnes.
Note: Measured in million tonnes of nitrogen.<br>Source: The Food and Agriculture Organization
The Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s combined seed breeding, pesticides, mechanization and fertilizer. It is credited with saving over one billion people from starvation, many in the Indian subcontinent and Mexico.<br>For the first time in modern history, the world wasn’t running out of farmland or the ability to feed itself.
In 1960, the average crop yield per hectare was around 1,336 kg.<br>By 2023, that average had more than tripled to 4,490 kg.<br>All while total farmland had only increased by 14%.
Earth’s population in 1960 was three billion people, triple the size of humanity 150 years earlier. In about 70 more years, it has almost tripled again, thanks to huge gains in food production.
If farms still produced food at pre-Green Revolution levels, feeding the world today would require more than half of the planet's habitable land, Canadian scientist Vaclav Smil calculates in Harvesting the Biosphere.
When the war with Iran broke out, fertilizer and nitrogen quickly became front-page news. The war cut off 17% of the world’s natural gas supply and more than 30% of world nitrogen fertilizer supply. Almost half of the world’s exported sulfur, a critical component for another type of fertilizer, was trapped in the Middle East Gulf.<br>Hundreds of ships sat at anchor in the Gulf, unable to sail through the Strait of Hormuz due to the risk of Iranian attacks. Natural gas plants were shut down. Fertilizer manufacturing plants were idled. Facilities were destroyed and damaged by missiles and drones.<br>Even if the Strait remains open, it will be months or years before some natural gas and fertilizer production returns to a pre-war normal.
Around 21 mi. (35km)
Around 21 mi. (35km)
Around 21 mi. (35km)
Around 21 mi. (35km)
Hydrogen
Nitrogen
From air
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Carbon Dioxide
Ammonia
Carbon Dioxide
Nitrogen
Hydrogen
From air
Natural Gas
Ammonia
Urea
Carbon Dioxide
Nitrogen
Hydrogen
From air
Natural Gas
Ammonia
Urea
Carbon Dioxide
Nitrogen
Hydrogen
From air
Natural Gas
Ammonia
Urea
Carbon Dioxide
Nitrogen
Hydrogen
From air
Natural Gas
Ammonia
Urea
Fertilizer prices shot up around the world just as planting season got underway in India, the U.S. and Australia. While prices have come down dramatically since, the damage has already been done for farmers and the billions who rely on the food they grow. Without nitrogen fertilizer, crop yields slump, meaning much less food is likely to be grown this year in some of the places that need it most.
Urea prices spiked when farmers needed it most<br>Urea (Granular) FOB US Gulf Futures
End of U.S.<br>planting<br>season and<br>possibility of a<br>deal result in<br>drop in prices
End of U.S.<br>planting<br>season and<br>possibility of a<br>deal result in<br>drop in prices
$700/metric ton
600
500
U.S. - Iran war
400
300
Jan. 2025
July
Jan. 2026
July
Planting season<br>India, Brazil, Australia and U.S.
$700/metric ton
End of U.S. planting<br>season and possibility<br>of a deal result in drop<br>in prices
650
End of U.S. planting<br>season and possibility<br>of a deal result in drop<br>in prices
600
550
500
U.S. - Iran war
450
400
350
300
Jan. 2025
July
Jan....