Global Warming At 3 °C By 2050? What's Behind The New German Climate Warning - Worldcrunch
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Worldcrunch » FOCUS » Green Or Gone » Global Warming At 3 °C By 2050? What’s Behind The New German Climate Warning
Heavy rainfall causing the level of the Elbe to rise sharply in Dresden, Germany. Credit: Imago/ZUMA
HAMBURG — For some time now, climate scientists have been discussing a troubling hypothesis: Is global warming accelerating? The German Physics Society and the German Meteorological Society are now warning of this in a joint statement. German weekly Die Zeit has discussed the issue with Klaus Richter, who is resident of the German Physical Society, and Frank Böttcher, chairman of the German Meteorological Society.
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DIE ZEIT: Frank Böttcher, Klaus Richter, the professional associations of meteorologists and physicists in Germany warn that the Earth could have warmed by 3 °C by 2050. That is only 25 years away. Do you really think that is realistic?<br>KLAUS RICHTER: The risk is increasing that we will miss the goal of keeping global warming below 2 °C. We believe the trend toward a 3 °C rise can no longer be ruled out, especially given current global politics. We therefore call for decisive action and stronger climate protection to minimize this risk.
FRANK BÖTTCHER: We have entered a new stage of climate change: Global warming now appears to be accelerating. We see it in Germany too. The data is so compelling that members of our societies felt they had a duty to speak out, despite all the uncertainty and the usual caution.
That forecast is far more dramatic than current research. Taking climate policies into account, most projections put warming at about 2.7 °C by the end of the century. By 2050, that would be roughly 2 °C. How do you reach 3 °C by 2050?<br>KR: We are looking 25 years ahead and beyond. So this is not a forecast in the strict sense. But current observations give reason to fear that such extreme warming is possible. The 2.7 °C projection is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s mid-range scenarios. The risk of 3 °C by 2050 falls within the IPCC’s worst-case scenarios. And unfortunately, recent data aligns more closely with those.
Did the IPCC underestimate the situation?<br>FB: The last IPCC report is now a decade old. The data looks very different today. We see a clear acceleration in warming: Since industrialization, it took 65 years for the world to heat by 0.5 °C. It then took just 28 years to reach 1 °C. We could breach the 1.5 °C threshold in only 17 more years, possibly as early as next year. The half-degree steps are coming faster and faster. Then there is the issue of ocean temperatures. Oceans have long been a massive buffer against warming. But for two and a half years now we have seen a sharp spike. If this continues, the oceans will absorb less of the extra energy caused by greenhouse gases, and temperatures in the atmosphere will climb faster.
A person with a helmet is seen in front of the illuminated cooling tower of the Schwarze Pumpe coal-fired power plant in Spremberg, Germany, on August 4, 2025. – Source: Florian Gaertner/dpa/ZUMA
Two and a half years is a short period. Is that enough to draw such conclusions?<br>KR: The rise in ocean temperatures fits a broader pattern, as several indicators point to an acceleration of climate change. Around 15 scientists from our two societies spent 18 months compiling current findings. They debated, for example, whether the sharp rises in global temperature in recent years were just statistical noise or whether they reveal a clear trend. New studies suggest climate sensitivity may be higher than thought, meaning the same amount of CO₂ raises temperatures more than we assumed. This backs the idea that a trend exists.
Do international scientists go as far as you do, or are German societies taking the lead here?<br>KR: Our appeal focuses on the observable acceleration of climate change. Whether it will continue is part of the global debate. A 3 °C rise by 2050, which we cannot rule out, is already within the range of the IPCC’s scenarios. As professional societies, we carry a social responsibility to point out potential risks early. That is what we are doing now.
In summer, meteorological...