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424 San Marco St — Fairfield 5-unit ($915k)5-unit Solano County, commercial 25% down + 7.5%, 24% bracket — docs/calculator-walkthrough-v2.md30-34 1st St — Richmond Atchison Village triplex ($659k)Triplex w/ Richmond 1.62% AGA rent cap, 5% conventional, 22% bracket — docs/calculator-walkthrough-richmond.mdStart from defaultsTypical Bay Area duplex. $1.1M, 5% down, 2 units. Edit anything.
After 10 years, the winner isRent + S&P 500<br>margin $202,250 (14.7% edge)<br>S&P could fall to 7.7% and still win
Edge over House-Hack1.4%/yr14.7% total · $202,250<br>Wealth multiplier9.2× · 10.5×10yr terminal ÷ starting capital<br>VerdictLeaning0.6–1.7%/yr edge — real advantage, not overwhelming
Personal FinanceStarting Capitalⓘ$150,000
Monthly Take-Homeⓘ$9,000
Groceries + Gas / Wkⓘ$100
Mortgage Terms (Property 1)Down Payment %ⓘ5%
Mortgage Rateⓘ6.88%
Property Taxⓘ1.18%
Property Tax Growth / Yrⓘ2%
Home Insurance %ⓘ0.60%
PMI Rate (if ⓘ0.55%
Buy Closing Costsⓘ3%
Property CostsProperty Utilities / Moⓘ$500
HOA / Mo (Property 1)ⓘ$0
Maint. & Vacancyⓘ12%
Emergency Coverage (Months)ⓘ2 mo
Cost to Sellⓘ6%
Market & TimingGeneral Inflationⓘ3%
Investment Returnⓘ10%
House-Hack Yearsⓘ2 yrs
Projection Yearsⓘ10 yrs
After You Move OutKeep RentingBuy Next Home
Rent After Move-Outⓘ$3,000
Rent Growthⓘ3%
Personal Utilities / Moⓘ$250
Renter's Insurance / Moⓘ$25
Tenant pays utilities after move-out
Home Priceⓘ$1,100,000
Number of Unitsⓘ2 units
Rental Income / Mo (hack phase)ⓘ$3,200
Full Rent / Mo (post move-out)ⓘ$6,400
Upfront Repairsⓘ$25,000
Appreciationⓘ3.50%
Rent Growthⓘ3%
Marginal Tax Rate (opt-in)ⓘ0%<br>0 = tax model OFF (conservative). Set to your federal bracket (10/12/22/24/32/35/37) to estimate rental deductions — see disclaimers below for what this does and doesn't model.
Land Value % of Priceⓘ35%
Monthly Rentⓘ$3,000
Rent Inflation / Yrⓘ3%
Renter's Insurance / Moⓘ$25
Utilities / Moⓘ$250
All $150,000 invested in S&P on day 1<br>No property tax, no maintenance, no selling costs<br>Rent inflates at 3%/yr (vs fixed mortgage)
$0$341k$682k$1.0M$1.4M$1.7M012345678910No crossover — Rent + S&P 500 leads the entire 10-year horizon
$0$293k$587k$880k$1.2M$1.5M012345678910Year 10: $658k equity + $701k portfolio + $19k reserve back = $1.4M total
MetricA · $1,100,000B · Rent + S&P 500<br>Upfront Capital Allocationⓘ<br>Cash to Closeⓘ<br>$113,000<br>$0
Buy Closing Costsⓘ<br>$33,000<br>$0
Emergency Fund (set aside)ⓘ<br>$18,951<br>$0
Leftover Capital → Invested Day 1ⓘ<br>$18,049<br>$150,000
Monthly Picture (Year 1)ⓘ<br>Mortgage PITIⓘ<br>$8,497
HOA Feesⓘ<br>$0<br>$0
Rent Paidⓘ<br>$3,000
Effective Rental Incomeⓘ<br>$2,816
Housing % of Take-Homeⓘ<br>74.0%<br>36.1%
Net Housing Costⓘ<br>$6,660<br>$3,275
Total Monthly Expensesⓘ<br>$7,093<br>$3,708
Monthly Surplus → Investⓘ<br>$1,907<br>$5,292
10-Year Outcomeⓘ<br>Home Value (Property 1)ⓘ<br>$1,551,659
Remaining Mortgage (Property 1)ⓘ<br>$894,085
Principal Paid (equity earned)ⓘ<br>$150,915
Appreciation Gainⓘ<br>$451,659
Hold Equity (Property 1)ⓘ<br>$657,574<br>$0
Cost to Sell (6%)ⓘ<br>-$93,100<br>$0
Liquidation Equity (Property 1)ⓘ<br>$564,474<br>$0
Total Rent Collectedⓘ<br>$706,177
Total Rent Paidⓘ<br>$0<br>-$412,700
Investment Portfolioⓘ<br>$700,746<br>$1,579,521
Hold Net Worthⓘ<br>$1,377,271<br>$1,579,521
Liquidation Net Worthⓘ<br>$1,284,171<br>$1,579,521
ROIⓘ<br>Total Gainⓘ<br>$1,227,271<br>$1,429,521
Total ROI %ⓘ<br>818.2%<br>953.0%
Money-weighted IRR (10yr)ⓘ<br>13.3%<br>10.0%
Wealth Multipleⓘ<br>9.18x<br>10.53x
Winner$1,377,271★ $1,579,521
Leverage vs. liquidity. The house-hacker controls a $1,100,000 asset with $113,000 down. The renter invests the full $150,000 at 10% with zero leverage. At 3.5% appreciation, that's roughly 20x leverage on the buy side.<br>The renter's hidden cost: inflation. Rent inflates at 3%/yr. The mortgage P&I is fixed forever. Over 10 years, the renter's housing cost rises from $3,000 to $4,032/mo, while the homeowner's P&I never changes. That widening gap compounds.<br>Hold vs. liquidation. We compare hold equity, not liquidation. Most house-hackers don't sell at year 10. If you did sell everything, 6% selling costs would reduce property equity by $93,100, bringing net worth to $1,284,171.<br>Why the IRR row disagrees with the verdict. Scroll into the breakdown table and you'll see Rent + S&P 500 wins on dollars but shows a lower Money-weighted IRR (10.0%) than the losing path (13.3%). That's not a bug. It's two different questions. The wealth multiplier above answers who ends up with more money. The IRR answers whose dollars grew faster on a per-dollar basis. They can disagree when the two paths deploy different total amounts of capital: positive rental cashflow on the house-hack side gets counted as a fresh contribution in the...