Could China and Russia really destroy Starlink? Only with a boomerang. - Ars Technica
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One week ago, three widely respected European news outlets published the results of an investigation into what they described as a “joint plan” by China and Russia to “defeat Elon Musk’s Starlink.”
The story was the product of a long-running inquiry by The Insider, Der Spiegel, and Le Monde. Reporters at those publications said they reviewed a cache of documents detailing growing military cooperation between China and Russia. The documents covered discussions between the nuclear powers on integrated air and missile defense systems, autonomous “swarm” loitering munitions, next-generation armored vehicles, and military aviation, the report said.
According to the papers, the investigation found evidence of a partnership between China and Russia in the field of space weapons far deeper than either country has acknowledged. One particular focus for China and Russia has been developing strategies to counter SpaceX’s Starlink satellite broadband network.
Among the documents the reporters reviewed were a series of slideshows presented at a previously undisclosed China-Russia Military-Technical Cooperation Forum held in 2023. The bilateral meetings have continued since then, with a sixth gathering on tap for the end of this year in St. Petersburg, the reporters said.
“The documents show a partnership that has moved well beyond shared rhetoric into a structured, multi-disciplinary program to build weapons neither country could develop alone,” the publications wrote.
Ars spoke with several former US defense officials and space security experts to assess the seriousness of China and Russia’s efforts to counter Starlink. First, is this a big surprise? Does the reporting make sense? And what does this mean for the ever-growing number of satellite constellations the US military relies upon for navigation, missile warning, communications, surveillance, and soon, tactical battlefield targeting?
Starlink has proven to be a vital advantage for the Ukrainian military since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. In some cases, Starlink has helped Ukraine extend the effective reach of its weapons, taking the fight deep into the Russian heartland.
The US military, too, sees Starlink and its growing number of spinoffs as enablers for 21st century warfare. Starlink and its related constellations, like military-grade Starshield satellites, would likely give US forces an edge if the United States went to war with China or Russia today.
China and Russia are working on their own versions of Starlink, but neither is close to fielding anywhere near SpaceX’s current constellation of more than 10,000 satellites. This could soon change, at least for China, which recovered its first reusable orbital-class rocket booster following a launch earlier this month. Mastering rocket reuse will allow Chinese companies to ramp up their launch cadence, unlocking new capacity for deploying mega-constellations.
The National Reconnaissance Office’s logo for its proliferated satellite constellation, with the slogan “Strength in Numbers.” The satellites in the NRO’s proliferated low-Earth orbit are built by SpaceX, based on the Starlink design.
Credit:<br>National Reconnaissance Office
The National Reconnaissance Office’s logo for its proliferated satellite constellation, with the slogan “Strength in Numbers.” The satellites in the NRO’s proliferated low-Earth orbit are built by SpaceX, based on the Starlink design.
Credit:
National Reconnaissance Office
Legitimate targets?
It’s no surprise, then, that China and Russia feel threatened by Starlink. The role of commercial satellites in warfare has sparked speculative discussions on their legitimacy as military targets, and what the Pentagon’s role should be in defending them. This theoretical debate is rapidly turning into reality.
A deputy director in Russia’s foreign ministry, Konstantin Vorontsov, said in 2022 that the use of Western commercial satellites by Ukraine established “an extremely dangerous trend.” While Vorontsov did not specifically name any satellites, he almost certainly was referring to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite constellation.
The use of civilian satellites for wartime purposes, Vorontsov said, essentially made them military targets. This was also the conclusion of Tara Brown, an officer in the Royal Air Force and a professor at the US Naval War College who specializes in space law. In a paper published by the Lieber Institute at West Point, which...