Insightix – when Polymarket and Deribit price the same event differently

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Insightix — Cross-market probability divergenceEnglish中文EspañolPortuguêsFrançaisDeutschالعربيةעבריתGet alerts

Cross-market divergence · liveOne event,<br>two markets two prices.<br>Prediction markets, derivatives, and sports data providers price the same event differently. That gap is data no single order book shows you. Widest gap right now: 19.8 percentage points.<br>How it works →Browse markets

Widest gaps nowMarket ↔ Reference<br>EsportsT1 beats Gen.G?19.8pp

Prediction market 64% Speedix Sports 44%<br>CryptoWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?8.4pp

Prediction market 14% Deribit 23%<br>CryptoWill Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 20-26?8.1pp

Prediction market 3% Deribit 11%<br>CryptoWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 21?7.8pp

Prediction market 32% Deribit 24%<br>Data updated Jul 21, 2026, 5:35 AM UTC

How it works<br>01Read both markets<br>Live prediction-market probability vs the same event priced by derivatives or a sports data provider.

02Strip the vig & align<br>Both sides are de-vigged and normalised, so the gap is a fair, apples-to-apples probability difference.

03You get the gap<br>When the two disagree past a threshold we surface it — and push it to your channel in real time.

Biggest gaps right now · all markets<br>Esports19.8pp<br>T1 beats Gen.G?

Prediction market 64% Speedix Sports 44%

Crypto8.4pp<br>Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?

Prediction market 14% Deribit 23%

Crypto8.1pp<br>Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 20-26?

Prediction market 3% Deribit 11%

Crypto7.8pp<br>Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 21?

Prediction market 32% Deribit 24%

Crypto7.0pp<br>Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?

Prediction market 41% Deribit 48%

Crypto6.2pp<br>Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?

Prediction market 5% Deribit 11%

Data updated Jul 21, 2026, 5:35 AM UTC

Browse by market<br>Crypto →BTC/ETH price events — Polymarket vs Deribit options.14 live gaps Sports →World Cup outright + per-match 1X2 — vs Speedix Sports. Esports →LoL/CS match winners — Polymarket vs Speedix Sports.10 live gaps

What you get<br>01Real-time divergence push<br>When the same event is priced at different probabilities across two markets and the gap widens past the threshold, it's pushed straight to your private Telegram channel — no screen-watching required.

02Four lines covered<br>Crypto (Polymarket × Deribit options), World Cup winner (prediction markets × sports data providers), Esports and Tennis matches.

03Every alert reads clearly<br>Side-by-side probabilities from both venues, the gap in pp, the direction and the source — so you see at a glance where the gap is and how big it is.

04Alerts only on real signals<br>Deduplicated and quality-filtered, so only genuine divergences get pushed — no spam, no noise.

⚡ Live divergence alerts<br>The moment the gap widens, it's pushed to a private Telegram channel. Crypto · Sports · Esports. Information only.<br>$19.9 / mo · or $199 / yr

Subscribe →Preview on Telegram →

Disclaimer: Probability data only reflects the views of market participants. Information only. Not financial advice. Must be 18+. Not available in some regions.

market prediction deribit sports bitcoin july

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