SCN Global Flow Monitor — Supply Chain Network Dynamics

SCN Global Flow Monitor<br>Supply Chain Network Dynamics · Global Crude Oil Trade

📄 Read the paper — arXiv:2607.17491

Destabilized Nodes

Systemic Deficit (MMbbl/wk)

Throughput Q(T)/Q(0)

Clearing Price p(T)

☰ Scenario

Disruption Scenario

Shock Target

Scenario Preset

Historical analog (70% · 12 wks)<br>Severe disruption (30% · 26 wks)<br>Extreme stress test (10% · 52 wks)<br>Custom

Capacity Retained 30%

Demand Elasticity ε 0.10

Supply Elasticity η 0.10

Horizon 26 wks

RUN SHOCK SIMULATION

Shock target<br>Collapse >60%

Degraded 10–60%<br>Insulated

Overland / pipeline

Fixed<br>Endogenous

Week 0.0

$75.00

1 wk/s<br>2 wk/s<br>4 wk/s<br>8 wk/s

SIMULATION — stress test, not a forecast · UN Comtrade 2025 reported<br>flows (sanctioned / unreported trade not represented) · arXiv:2607.17491

Analytics ▸

Market Price p(t)

Downstream Flow Losses

Emergency Stockpile Drawdown (% remaining)

Model & calibration: Supply Chain Networks — fluid-stochastic<br>network clearing, Skorokhod inventory dynamics, endogenous pricing with<br>strategic trade rebalancing. Stockpile-depletion events shown for<br>net-importer emergency buffers; exporter buffers are elastic-supply<br>accounts (see paper §5.2). Capacity-retained settings bundle bypass<br>infrastructure (e.g., East–West & Habshan–Fujairah pipelines for<br>Hormuz). No rationing policy is modeled: buffers drain mechanically.

arxiv.org/abs/2607.17491