I used to ignore prediction markets. Then I learned people were betting on wildfires - High Country News

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Cal Fire photo from the Palisades Fire burning on January 8, 2025, and screenshots from Kalshi user interface. Credit: Photo illustration by Luna Anna Archey/High Country News

The gambling websites called “prediction markets” had never really interested me. These sites, including prominent companies like Polymarket and Kalshi, have become popular, allowing people to bet on everything from who will win the World Cup to Taylor Swift’s wedding guest list. I lumped them into the same general category as other modern bro-y buzzwords — crypto, meme-coin, DraftKings — and never imagined how these platforms might actually intersect with the environment in fascinating and even alarming ways.

Then, almost a year and a half ago now, I read a piece by Bill Shaikin, a sportswriter for the Los Angeles Times. Shaikin penned an essay arguing that Polymarket “shouldn’t allow people to profit by betting on the L.A. firestorm.” That this was happening surprised me, and I tucked the factoid away. Another story, in Aeon Magazine, revealed that people spent $1.2 million on Polymarket during the Los Angeles fires, betting on questions specifically about them.

Will betting on wildfires lead to arson?

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I needed to learn more. So, I started reporting out what would become my June 29 story, “Will betting on wildfires lead to arson?” I spoke with wildfire survivors who said they were disgusted that people were gambling on their lives and the fate of their communities. (The LA fires killed 31 people and destroyed more than 16,000 structures.) One survivor said prediction market betting was salt in the wound. She felt like Southern California Edison — the utility company whose infrastructure sparked the Eaton Fire — had already gambled with her life.

Ethicists told me that gambling on fatal disasters devalues human life and likely incentivizes arson. I struggled to find anyone who bet on wildfires who was willing to speak with me. Meanwhile, I was the first to report on a California-specific wildfire prediction market site called Wyldfyre. The site went offline briefly after our reporting, then returned with new terms of service, contact information and a disclaimer saying that it was “not an emergency information source.” Instead of money, it currently uses virtual points with no monetary value.

The story has since taken a life of its own. It’s been re-published by outlets including WIRED, Slate, the Durango Heraldand Mother Jones, where it headlined the publication’s Climate Desk Weekly newsletter. I spoke about it on Oregon Public Broadcasting’s daily conversation show, Think Out Loud with Dave Miller and KJZZ Phoenix’s The Show. That interview was shared by outlets throughout the Mountain West News Bureau, which includes public media stations in Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. I also joined the City Cast Seattle podcast to discuss wildfire betting with Jane Hu, a former HCN editor.

Talking about the story sparked new discoveries: Before our conversation, Miller reached out to Cal Fire, the state’s fire agency, with a question I hadn’t originally thought to ask, and we learned that state employees in California, including Cal Fire employees, aren’t allowed to bet on prediction markets — knowledge that might assuage some concerns about insider trading, at least when it comes to wildfires in that state.

I also learned more about the patchy regulations that govern prediction markets. Depending on where you live in the West, you may or may not even have access to them. Arizona, for example, tried but failed to ban Kalshi after federal courts intervened, leaving the platform still accessible to the state’s residents. In Washington, however, a judge just ruled that the platform likely violates state gambling laws, paving the way for the state to halt its operations in the state for an unknown amount of time. Meanwhile, most, but not all, Kalshi markets are blocked in Nevada.

The more I learned, the more I came to believe that prediction markets were important — and that people should understand them, whether they gambled or not.

My reporting convinced me that viewing wildfires as entertainment or for profit has dangerous consequences. Gamifying something deadly and profiting off an event that destroys communities does not sit right with me. I’ll be curious to see if the next megafire that captures national attention is open for wagers, or whether platforms, states or the federal government will eventually decide the risks aren’t worth the rewards.

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