Easy A’s, Less Pay: The Long-Term Effects of Grade Inflation | NBER
Skip to main content
Search
Search
Easy A’s, Less Pay: The Long-Term Effects of Grade Inflation
Jeffrey T. Denning,
Rachel L. Nesbit,
Nolan G. Pope
& Merrill Warnick
Share
Bluesky
Threads
Link
Working Paper 34952
DOI 10.3386/w34952
Issue Date March 2026
Average grades continue to rise in the United States, raising the question of how grade inflation impacts students. We provide comprehensive evidence on how teacher grading practices affect students' long-run success. Using administrative high school data from Los Angeles and from Maryland that is linked to postsecondary and earnings records, we develop and validate two teacher-level measures of grade inflation: one measuring average grade inflation and another measuring a teacher's propensity to give a passing grade. These measures of grade inflation are distinct from teacher value-added, with grade inflating teachers having moderately lower cognitive value-added and slightly higher noncognitive value-added. These two measures also differentially impact students' long-term outcomes. Being assigned a higher average grade inflating teacher reduces a student's future test scores, the likelihood of graduating from high school, college enrollment, and ultimately earnings. In contrast, passing grade inflation reduces the likelihood of being held back and increases high school graduation, with limited long-run effects. The cumulative impact is economically significant: a teacher with one standard deviation higher average grade inflation reduces the present discounted value of lifetime earnings of their students by $213,872 per year.
Acknowledgements and Disclosures
This research was supported by the Maryland Longitudinal Data System (MLDS) Center. We are grateful for the assistance provided by the MLDS Center. All opinions are the authors’ and do not represent the opinion of the MLDS Center or its partner agencies. Nesbit is currently serving as Associate Economist at the RAND Corporation; however, the views, opinions, findings, conclusions, and recommendations contained herein are the author’s alone and not those of RAND. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Citation and Citation Data
Copy Citation
Jeffrey T. Denning, Rachel L. Nesbit, Nolan G. Pope, and Merrill Warnick, "Easy A’s, Less Pay: The Long-Term Effects of Grade Inflation," NBER Working Paper 34952 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34952.
Copy to Clipboard
Download Citation
MARC
RIS
BibTeΧ
Download Citation Data
Related
Topics
Health, Education, and Welfare
Education
Programs
Economics of Education
Labor Studies
Public Economics
Mentioned in the News
Yale asked a committee why people hate the Ivy League. Their 20 findings: A grades are ...
April 16, 2026
Source:
Fortune
Read the research here.
Gen Z's straight‑A boom is quietly shrinking their paychecks
March 19, 2026
Source:
Fortune
Read the research here.
More from the NBER
In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Health, and the Bulletin on Entrepreneurship — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews.
2025, 17th Annual Feldstein Lecture, N. Gregory Mankiw," The Fiscal Future"
Feldstein Lecture
Presenter:
N. Gregory Mankiw
N. Gregory Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University, presented the 2025 Martin Feldstein...
2025, Methods Lecture, Raj Chetty and Kosuke Imai, "Uncovering Causal Mechanisms: Mediation Analysis and Surrogate Indices"
Methods Lectures
Presenters:
Raj Chetty
& Kosuke Imai
SlidesBackground materials on mediationImai, Kosuke, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2013). “Experimental Designs...
2025, International Trade and Macroeconomics, "Panel on The Future of the Global Economy"
Panel Discussion
Presenters:
Oleg Itskhoki,
Paul R. Krugman
& Linda Tesar
Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant #G-2023-19633, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation grant #20251294...
Follow
© 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research. All Rights Reserved.