AI is set to drive surging electricity demand from data centres while offering the potential to transform how the energy sector works - News - IEA

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Major new IEA report brings groundbreaking data and analysis to one of the most pressing and least understood energy issues today, exploring AI’s wide range of potential impacts

Artificial intelligence has the potential to transform the energy sector in the coming decade, driving a surge in electricity demand from data centres around the world while also unlocking significant opportunities to cut costs, enhance competitiveness and reduce emissions, according to a major new report from the IEA.<br>The IEA’s special report Energy and AI, out today, offers the most comprehensive, data-driven global analysis to date on the growing connections between energy and AI. The report draws on new datasets and extensive consultation with policy makers, the tech sector, the energy industry and international experts. It projects that electricity demand from data centres worldwide is set to more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours (TWh), slightly more than the entire electricity consumption of Japan today. AI will be the most significant driver of this increase, with electricity demand from AI-optimised data centres projected to more than quadruple by 2030.<br>In the United States, power consumption by data centres is on course to account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030. Driven by AI use, the US economy is set to consume more electricity in 2030 for processing data than for manufacturing all energy-intensive goods combined, including aluminium, steel, cement and chemicals. In advanced economies more broadly, data centres are projected to drive more than 20% of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030, putting the power sector in those economies back on a growth footing after years of stagnating or declining demand in many of them.<br>A diverse range of energy sources will be tapped to meet data centres’ rising electricity needs, according to the report – though renewables and natural gas are set to take the lead due to their cost-competitiveness and availability in key markets.<br>“AI is one of the biggest stories in the energy world today – but until now, policy makers and markets lacked the tools to fully understand the wide-ranging impacts,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol . “Global electricity demand from data centres is set to more than double over the next five years, consuming as much electricity by 2030 as the whole of Japan does today. The effects will be particularly strong in some countries. For example, in the United States, data centres are on course to account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand; in Japan, more than half; and in Malaysia, as much as one-fifth.”<br>The report emphasises the significant uncertainties that remain, from the macroeconomic outlook to how quickly AI will be adopted. It also notes questions over how capable and productive AI will become, how fast efficiency improvements will occur, and whether bottlenecks in the energy sector can be resolved.<br>AI could intensify some energy security strains while helping to address others, according to the report. Cyberattacks on energy utilities have tripled in the past four years and become more sophisticated because of AI. At the same time, AI is becoming a critical tool for energy companies to defend against such attacks. Another energy security concern relates to the expanding demand for critical minerals used in the equipment in the data centres that power AI. The report provides first-of-its-kind estimates of demand from data centres for critical minerals, whose global supply is today highly concentrated.<br>While the increase in electricity demand for data centres is set to drive up emissions, this increase will be small in the context of the overall energy sector and could potentially be offset by emissions reductions enabled by AI if adoption of the technology is widespread, according to the report. Additionally, as AI becomes increasingly integral to scientific discovery, the report finds that it could accelerate innovation in energy technologies such as batteries and solar PV.<br>“With the rise of AI, the energy sector is at the forefront of one of the most important technological revolutions of our time,” Dr Birol said. “AI is a tool, potentially an incredibly powerful one, but it is up to us – our societies, governments and companies – how we use it. The IEA will continue to provide the data, analysis and forums...