You Have No Idea How Big DFTX Is Going to Be - by Andy
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You Have No Idea How Big DFTX Is Going to Be<br>The highest-leverage bet in the whole market is not AI, it's LSD.
Andy<br>Jul 26, 2026
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Look, I’m not trying to convince you that psychedelics are the next big thing. I already did that. I’m trying to convince you that psychedelics, and in particular, LSD, and in particular Definium Therapeutics (which is the company behind DT120 , Definium Therapeutics’ proprietary formulation of LSD) is going to make you rich.<br>And I mean obscenely rich .<br>And sure, I know what you’re thinking — with these premises I wouldn’t believe you either.<br>So, let’s do some math (this article is going to be very short).<br>Right now, Definium Therapeutics (ticker DFTX) is worth $5.731B. That’s 43.17 dollars a share times 132.74M shares. The company has no revenue, which, don’t get me wrong, is pretty common for a biotech startup, but anyway, they estimate $4.9B potential revenue for every 100,000 patients treated with DT120.<br>From Definium Therapeutics’ Corporate Presentation, page 36:
So what’s the big deal? DT120 could potentially treat major depressive disorder (MDD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). So far they got one jaw-dropping phase 3 trial readout for MDD already out, two more phase 3 trial readouts for GAD to come in early Q3 2026, and in late Q3 2026 (worth mentioning: Definium, named MindMed at the time, was awarded Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA because of how groundbreaking DT120 proved to be for GAD in phase 2), not to mention a phase 3 trial for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) starting next year.<br>You’re confused? Here’s a quick snapshot from the Corporate Presentation, page 8, with all Definium’s clinical trials + upcoming catalysts for DT120.
Yeah, yeah, it all sounds very complicated, doesn’t it? But it isn’t .<br>In layman terms, psychedelics like LSD have been relegated to the fringes of medical science for ages. And not even the fringes, beyond the fringes: they were basically the scourge of the earth, or, as three-letter agencies use to say, a Schedule I drug, on par with heroin.<br>So what’s new?<br>Some years ago Definium Therapeutics and other companies kickstarted a new age of psychedelic medicine — this time based on clinical trials under the guidance of the FDA. And what they discovered was massive.<br>DT120, if all these trial readouts go well — which, of course, they might not, but let’s entertain the possibility everything’s peachy for a moment — is nothing short of a miracle drug . A single, best-in-class, almost-one-and-done formulation with a potential total addressable market (TAM) of 200 billion dollars. And I’m not fabricating numbers, it’s all in black and white on page 36 of Definium’s Corporate Presentation.
I promised you math, didn’t I? So here it is.<br>$2 billion revenue opportunity for every 1% of market penetration.<br>Let’s assume trials go well. How big of a market share will DT120 acquire by, say, 2030? Let’s be pessimistic: let’s say 5% .<br>5% times 2 billion dollars per 1% penetration = 10 billion dollars.<br>What’s the price to sales ratio for an average biotechnology company?<br>According to the dataset of Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at Stern School of Business of New York University, (dataset updated to January 2026), the answer is 7.31 .
7.31 times 10 billion dollars gives us a market cap of 73.1 billion dollars .<br>You remember I told you there are currently 132.74M shares? Let’s be overly pessimistic and assume dilution up to 200M shares — mind you, more dilution is unlikely at this point, given the company has roughly over a billion dollars in cash, which should be enough to commercialize DT120 and get to profitability, but let’s crank caution up to eleven, just to be sure.<br>So, what’s 73.1 billion dollars divided by 200M shares? It’s $365.50 per share.<br>And I remind you, as of today, the company is worth 43.17 dollars a share.<br>That’s 8.46x.<br>Yes.<br>You read that right.<br>Over 8x in 4 years , assuming that trial results confirm the greatness the company has got us accustomed to so far.<br>And keep in mind, this is the base case, i.e., Definium gets to only 5% market penetration.<br>Let’s be bold and consider, just for the sake of it, that there is no dilution and DT120 is truly a miracle drug, with a 20% market penetration.<br>In such a case, the stock price would balloon to $2,202.80 per share. Which is 51.03x from today’s price.<br>What could go wrong
Many things could go wrong. In no particular order:<br>There’s a non-zero chance that phase 3 clinical trials do not confirm past results . I think this is unlikely. For starters, check the Corporate Presentation, page 15:
The first MDD phase 3 trial for DT120, Emerge, positioned DT120 as best-in-class, i.e., better than any other drug on the market. Isn’t it somewhat safe to assume that the second MDD phase 3 trial for DT120, Ascend, might confirm Emerge’s results? And after the sensational...