'First tremors' of AI earthquake showing in digital revenue hit - Press Gazette

ChatGPT, Gemini, Microsoft Copilot, Claude, and Perplexity app icons are seen on the screen of an iPhone. Picture: Shutterstock/Tada Images

The "first tremors in an earthquake" hitting the news industry from AI answers and audience habit changes can be seen in the latest snapshot of digital publishing revenue.

Following four consecutive quarters of growth among UK publishers taking part in the Digital Publishers’ Revenue Index, Q1 2026 saw a swing back into decline.

Among 13 publishers (nine B2C and four B2B) surveyed by the Association of Online Publishers and Deloitte, total digital revenue dropped by 4.55% in the first three months of this year.

Despite the overall decline, 62% of the publisher respondents reported revenue growth – the highest proportion in a year. The AOP said this indicates the heaviest losses are being felt by a minority of participants who are most vulnerable to the current changes in the information ecosystem.

The biggest growth area was 5.06% in digital display advertising, likely attributable to more direct-sold premium deals being made. All participants indicated advertising was now a high business priority, compared to 75% of respondents in Q1 2025.

The second biggest growth area was online video, up 1.29%, followed by sponsorship, rising by 0.91%, and subscriptions, up by just 0.63%.

The category with the biggest decline was "miscellaneous" (all revenue streams that do not fit within one of the top-level categories such as first-party data sales, content recommendation units and AI licensing) which AOP suggested could have been hit by AI substitution of publisher content across various referral channels.

It also pointed to major agencies like Dentsu and WPP pulling out of The Trade Desk’s OpenPath direct-to-publisher advertising initiative over concerns around where exactly their ads were running and hidden fees.

The AOP suggested large declines in recruitment classified (down by 44.84%), other classified revenue (down 38.17%) and off-platform (down 20.27%) could also be attributed to people getting information in AI answers without feeling the need to click through to publishers.

Separate AOP research published by Press Gazette found only 26% of ChatGPT users report they would click at least one media link shown in a response, rising slightly to 34% for a Google Search with an AI Overview at the top. Users are 18% less likely to click through to a source from Google if there is an AI Overview.

Yet a user’s perception of a media brand cited within an AI response determines whether they trust the answer overall – confirming the importance of verified publisher content to the AI companies.

Richard Reeves, managing director at AOP, said the trade body’s investigation into the impact of AI on publisher referral traffic showed "it was only a matter of time until we saw it manifest in these reports.

"Though AI is not the only cause for this quarter’s declines, I believe we are seeing the first tremors in an earthquake being felt across the industry.

"On a brighter note, the turnaround our members have achieved in display revenues must be commended and demonstrates the quality of the advertising product that premium publishers provide.”

The AOP warned there are "signs of economic turbulence" as more of the publishers in the revenue index said they will be prioritising cost reductions (up from 50% last year to 100%) and acquisitions (rising from 25% to 100%).

Andy Cowen, lead partner for telecoms, media and entertainment at Deloitte, added: "While the overall revenue decline reflects ongoing market challenges, the strong growth in display advertising is a clear indicator of the value premium publisher content still holds.

“However, the significant drops in other revenue streams highlight the urgent need for publishers to adapt, innovate their offerings, and strategically diversify to build resilient business models in this evolving digital landscape."

Digital audio revenue was down by a significant amount – 46.98% compared to the start of 2025 – for the second quarter in a row. Although this was a relatively small total loss of £1.87m, the AOP said the "direction of travel is concerning" and noted video revenue growth was relatively flat.

Topics in this article :<br>Association of Online Publishers

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Charlotte Tobitt

@CharlotteTobitt

Charlotte Tobitt is UK editor at Press Gazette, having joined the site in February 2018 after spending four years at the Surrey Advertiser.

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