[2607.23904] Predicted Ejecta Dynamics and Observability of the 2026 Falcon 9 Upper Stage Lunar Impact

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arXiv:2607.23904 (astro-ph)

[Submitted on 27 Jul 2026]

Title:Predicted Ejecta Dynamics and Observability of the 2026 Falcon 9 Upper Stage Lunar Impact

Authors:William Jo, David B. Goldstein, Philip L. Varghese, Laurence M. Trafton, Jordan K. Steckloff, Arnaud Mahieux<br>View a PDF of the paper titled Predicted Ejecta Dynamics and Observability of the 2026 Falcon 9 Upper Stage Lunar Impact, by William Jo and 5 other authors

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Abstract:On Aug. 5 at 06:34 UTC, a Falcon 9 upper stage (~3,900 kg) will strike the lunar surface at 2.43 km/s, yielding a potentially visible debris plume. We present a study of the expected impact dynamics and resulting possibly observable debris field. The debris plume should reach roughly 15 to 20 km in altitude for the ejecta curtain and 75 to 100 km for the central ejecta spike, extend 183 km laterally from the impact point near the sunlit limb, and yield a peak dust column density above 10 km altitude of 6.08*10^7 m^-2. Simulated I/F exceeds dark-sky background brightness by several orders of magnitude for the first few minutes after impact, reaching I/F = 1.27*10^-3 at the earliest resolved time (t = 5 s). Above 10 km, peak I/F reaches 1.33*10^-5, still several orders of magnitude brighter than the dark sky.

Comments:<br>Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters on July 24, 2026. Main Text: 12 Pages, 3 Figures. Supporting Information: 7 Pages, 4 Figures & 7 Tables

Subjects:

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP)

Cite as:<br>arXiv:2607.23904 [astro-ph.EP]

(or<br>arXiv:2607.23904v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.23904

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arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history<br>From: William Jo [view email]<br>[v1]<br>Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:36:18 UTC (1,473 KB)

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