anpaure on X: "How big are the frontier models?<br>I tried to answer this question using a statistical model of intelligence indices, a No-CoT reasoning benchmark, API prices, compute trends, and a poll of 20 AI researchers and engineers. Here are the results: https://t.co/ycqgr9NRbu" / X<br>Post

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anpaure

@anpaure

How big are the frontier models?<br>I tried to answer this question using a statistical model of intelligence indices, a No-CoT reasoning benchmark, API prices, compute trends, and a poll of 20 AI researchers and engineers. Here are the results:

span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:content-['·'] [&>span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:px-1 [&>span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:shrink-0">7:09 PM · Aug 2, 2026751Views

33

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@anpaure

1h

The motivation is simple: people speculate on this topic endlessly, but I've yet to see a proper attempt that is grounded in evidence. Intelligence indices offer a good starting point, however they measure RL as much as the base model. I decided to take the Gould et al. No-CoT Show more

Frontier model size estimates

From anpaure.github.io

10<br>svg]:size-5 text-body hover:bg-mix-current hover:bg-mix-amount-10 active:bg-mix-current active:bg-mix-amount-15 focus-visible:bg-mix-current focus-visible:bg-mix-amount-10 outline-current -m-2 shrink-0 cursor-pointer border-transparent p-0 text-body size-9 [&>svg]:size-[1.25em] [&>[data-engagement-icon]]:size-[1.25em] group-hover:bg-mix-current group-hover:bg-mix-amount-10" aria-label="View count" type="button" data-state="closed" href="/anpaure/status/2083993792986890651/quotes">184

span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:content-['·'] [&>span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:px-1 [&>span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:shrink-0 min-w-0 overflow-hidden">anpaure

@anpaure

1h

As a refinement, I also considered API prices, and broad compute trends, as measured by Epoch AI. Finally, and most importantly, I surveyed 20 people to calibrate my model and my personal prediction. Surprisingly, the public opinion aligned very closely with my model!

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span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:content-['·'] [&>span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:px-1 [&>span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:shrink-0 min-w-0 overflow-hidden">anpaure

@anpaure

1h

It's hard to be fully accurate so I've given the option to interact with the graph and upweight/downweight each factor

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span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:content-['·'] [&>span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:px-1 [&>span:not(:empty)~span:not(:empty)]:before:shrink-0 min-w-0 overflow-hidden">Shakh

@ssailaukan

1h

glad I could contribute to the survey!

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