Live El Niño Tracker: Niño 3.4 Index, Map & Forecast — ElNinoLiveGet the briefing
El Niño Advisory · NOAA Climate Prediction Center<br>El Niño is active and strengthening<br>+2.0°C<br>BOM relative Niño 3.4 · weekly · El Niño threshold +0.8°C
+2.3°C<br>Niño 3.4, conventional index, weekly — shown for freshness · NOAA threshold +0.5°C · week centered July 29, 2026
Very strong<br>+0.5°C<br>official classification — NOAA RONI · seasonal · threshold ±0.5°C · AMJ 2026
RONI subtracts the background warming of the whole tropical ocean, isolating El Niño's own signal — the gap between the numbers above is the story, not an error. The weekly pair is the cleanest apples-to-apples version of that same gap: same week, same cadence — +2.0°C once the tropics' shared warming is stripped out, versus +2.3°C raw.<br>Forecast peak: Oct–Dec 2026 · 81% chance of a very strong event (at least +2.0°C) · 88% chance of at least a strong one · ~97% chance it persists into early spring 2027.<br>BOM: Data as of August 5, 2026Niño 3.4: Data as of August 5, 2026RONI: Data as of August 5, 2026
00.511.523NeutralWeakModerateStrongVery strong
The race: 2026–27 vs the three strongest El Niños on record<br>Relative Oceanic Niño Index — NOAA's official relative ENSO metric
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Source: NOAA CPC Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), 1950–presentData as of August 5, 2026<br>The race: 2026–27 vs the three strongest El Niños on record<br>conventional index — shown for comparability with historical events
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Source: NOAA CPC monthly Niño 3.4 (detrended, ERSSTv5); NOAA CPC weekly SST (OISST v2.1, 1991–2020 climatology)Data as of August 5, 2026<br>Sea surface temperature anomalies, live<br>Warm water spreading along the equatorial Pacific is El Niño's signature
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Source: NASA EOSDIS GIBS · GHRSST MUR SST anomalies<br>Official ENSO outlook probabilities<br>Chance of each state by overlapping three-month season · outlook of 2026-07-09
Read the full forecast →100% El Niño for the OND 2026 peak season (outlook of 2026-07-09).
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Source: NOAA CPC / IRI official ENSO outlook (manually transcribed monthly)Data as of July 9, 2026<br>Southern Oscillation Index<br>The atmosphere's side of ENSO: sustained negative SOI accompanies El Niño.
Latest: -1.4 (Jun 2026) — negative readings sit on the El Niño side.
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Source: NOAA CPC Southern Oscillation Index (standardized Tahiti−Darwin)Data as of August 5, 2026
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The 2026–27 event so far<br>Feb 2026<br>La Niña fades<br>The 2025–26 La Niña weakens below thresholds.
Apr 2026<br>Neutral Pacific<br>ENSO-neutral conditions through spring.
May 2026<br>Threshold crossed<br>Weekly Niño 3.4 exceeds +0.5°C.
Jun 2026<br>El Niño Advisory<br>NOAA declares El Niño conditions present.
Aug 2026 · now<br>Event strengthening<br>RONI: +0.5°C (weak) · conventional weekly Niño 3.4: +2.3°C.
Oct–Dec 2026<br>Forecast peak<br>81% odds the peak reaches “very strong” (≥ +2.0°C).
Latest forecast updates<br>All updates<br>July 9, 2026<br>NOAA Raises the Odds of a Very Strong El Niño to 81%<br>The July outlook jumps very-strong odds from 63% to 81%, centers the peak on Oct–Dec 2026 — and the ocean is running ahead of 1997 and 2015.<br>June 12, 2026<br>NOAA Declares El Niño — and the Odds of a Very Strong Event Rise<br>The Advisory is official: ~100% odds El Niño lasts through winter, 88% at least strong, 63% very strong. How June 2026 compares to 1997 and 2015.<br>May 14, 2026<br>El Niño Has Arrived: The Pacific Crosses the Threshold<br>Weekly readings have crossed the +0.5°C line for the first time since the La Niña ended. Here's what must happen before an official declaration.
What it means where you live<br>All regions<br>California<br>California's wettest winters cluster in strong El Niño years — and 2026–27 is forecast to be one of them.<br>Australia<br>Dry east, primed fuels, a wheat belt on edge — Australia faces the sharpest downside of a strong El Niño winter and spring.<br>India<br>A billion-person economy runs on four months of rain — and El Niño historically loads those months toward deficit. With famous exceptions.<br>Indonesia<br>The archipelago sits under El Niño's departing rains — drought, peat fires and regional haze are the historical price of a strong event.<br>Peru & South America<br>The place that named El Niño still takes its hardest punch: coastal floods, a collapsing fishery — and a wetter windfall far to the south.<br>Atlantic Basin<br>The one El Niño impact that arrives before winter: shear-suppressed Atlantic activity — with the 'it only takes one' asterisk written in 1992.
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