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Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends
July 30, 2026
AI Lowers Wages But Doesn't Cut Jobs
About the Author
Torsten<br>Slok
Partner, Chief Economist
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Analysis of actual Claude usage data shows workers in AI-exposed occupations are experiencing slower wage growth, while employment levels in these occupations remain unchanged, suggesting companies are capturing AI productivity gains through wage compression rather than workforce reduction.<br>This paper was written by Sania Edlich and me using a difference-in-differences methodology with occupation and year fixed effects across 321 matched occupations from 2015 to today. The paper is available here.
1 page
Sources: Sania Edlich and Torsten Slok
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