Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy | NBER
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Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy
Ran Abramitzky,
Leah Platt Boustan,
Ahmet Gulek
& Jens Hainmueller
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Working Paper 35560
DOI 10.3386/w35560
Issue Date July 2026
We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.
Acknowledgements and Disclosures
We are grateful to Michael Clemens for his invaluable comments. Mi Liu provided excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Ahmet Gulek, and Jens Hainmueller, "Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Paper 35560 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35560.
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