The spatial distribution of the U.S. childfree population: Does state context matter? | PLOS One

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Abstract<br>Childfree adults do not have and do not want children, and represent a large and growing fraction of the total population in the United States. However, we know relatively little about where childfree adults live, or whether the features of their state’s context are associated with being childfree. In this study, we use data from 20,118 respondents in all 50 states to better understand the childfree population’s spatial characteristics. Despite substantial between-state variation in prevalence, from 22% in California to 9.4% in Louisiana, there is no evidence that this population is clustered in specific multi-state regions. Additionally, mixed-effects model estimates suggest that although being childfree was more common in more populated states with higher costs of living, individual demographic characteristics are much more strongly associated with being childfree. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of these findings, and identifying future directions that are highlighted by this study’s limitations.

Citation: Neal ZP, Neal JW (2026) The spatial distribution of the U.S. childfree population: Does state context matter? PLoS One 21(8):<br>e0352872.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0352872<br>Editor: José Antonio Ortega, University of Salamanca, SPAIN<br>Received: November 25, 2025; Accepted: June 16, 2026; Published: August 12, 2026<br>Copyright: © 2026 Neal, Neal. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.<br>Data Availability: Yes - all data are fully available without restriction; ’The data used in this work come from the Civic Health and Institutions Project (chip50.org). The funders and the principal investigators of the CHIP50 Project bear no responsibility for the analyses reported here or the content of the work. The data and code necessary to reproduce the analyses reported in this manuscript are available in the Open Science Framework at https://osf.io/qexm3.<br>Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.<br>Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction<br>Childfree adults do not have children and do not want to have children in the future. They represent a large and growing fraction of the total population in the United States (U.S.) [1,2], with nearly 30% of all non-parents identifying as childfree in 2023 [3]. The childfree population is important not only due to its size and growth, but also because it has implications for the country’s long-term population growth and because its members often have unique health, work, and financial needs [4–6]. However, despite this population’s importance, we know relatively little about where childfree adults live, or whether the features of their state’s context are associated with being childfree.

In this study, we used data from each U.S. state to better understand this population’s spatial characteristics. First, we mapped the prevalence of childfree adults in each state, finding that despite substantial between-state variation (e.g., 22% in California, 9.4% in Louisiana), there was no evidence that this population is spatially clustered in specific multi-state regions. Second, we examined state characteristics that were associated with being childfree, finding that being childfree was more common in more populated states with higher costs of living. Finally, we compared the association of being childfree with both individual and state characteristics, finding that being childfree was much more closely associated with individual demographic characteristics than with state contextual characteristics.

This paper is organized in four sections. First, in the background section, we define the childfree population and review prior research on its prevalence, spatial distribution, and correlates. Second, in the methods section, we introduce the Civic Health and Institutions Project, a 50 States Survey’ (CHIP50) data, describe how we identify respondents who are childfree, and explain the analyses we use to answer each research question. Third, in the results section, we report findings from the analyses designed to map the spatial distribution of the U.S. childfree population and identify individual and state characteristics associated with being childfree. Finally, we conclude in the discussion section by considering the policy implications of our findings, and identifying future directions that are highlighted by this study’s...