Show HN: I scored my Kalshi bot with Brier score. It was worse than guessing

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Predict & Profit | Automated Kalshi Weather & Inflation Trading BotsHIGH-NYC67¢+3HIGH-CHI81¢+0HIGH-LAX74¢+1HIGH-DC71¢-2HIGH-PHI69¢+0HIGH-BOS63¢+2HIGH-ATL78¢+1LOW-DEN34¢+2LOW-MIA72¢-1RAIN-HOU28¢+5GAS-MO55¢-1CPI42¢-1

Stop Guessing. Trade the Weather with Hard Data.<br>Two automated bots for Kalshi prediction markets. The weather bot prices every contract from NOAA's calibrated station forecasts, and skips the markets it cannot price. The inflation bot runs five signal sources across CPI and PCE. Full Python source, a visual dashboard, no subscriptions, no paid APIs.<br>Get the Source Code — $75Read the Ebook — $9.99<br>Built and run daily on real money by a senior data engineer.

POWERED BY INSTITUTIONAL GRADE TECHNOLOGY

THE ENGINE<br>Mathematical Edge.<br>The bot prices a contract from NOAA's calibrated station guidance, and when no guidance exists for that market it stays out rather than guessing. No emotion, just probability. Two bots. One for weather, one for inflation. Both powered by the same principle.

24/7 Automated Execution<br>NOAA National Blend of Models, Calibrated Station Guidance<br>Weather Bot + Inflation Bot Included<br>Full Python Source Code<br>Optional Visual Dashboard

Bot Monitoring<br>Live<br>Weather Bot<br>MODELNOAA NBM<br>CITIES20

Inflation Bot<br>SIGNALS5<br>Data Sources<br>Cleveland Fed✓<br>BLS✓<br>BEA✓

Capital Deployed<br>$43.20

View live results →<br>TRANSPARENCY<br>Why Sell The Code?<br>It is the most common question. The answer is simple: prediction market liquidity. Kalshi operates on binary contracts. Other traders reading the same NOAA forecast guidance alongside you do not dilute your mathematical edge. We trade the weather, not each other.<br>This bot trades weather, not stocks. There is no insider information, no alpha decay from sharing. The edge comes from mathematical modeling that most traders cannot build themselves. More users running the same model on Kalshi binary contracts does not move the underlying weather.

THE METHODOLOGY<br>Calibrated Guidance.<br>Not a Member Count.<br>The weather bot prices contracts from NOAA's National Blend of Models: calibrated, bias-corrected, station-level probabilistic temperature guidance published for exactly the stations Kalshi settles on. Probability comes from interpolating NOAA's own published percentiles. Five raw forecast systems stay in the model at a combined quarter weight, as a disagreement check rather than as the basis of the decision.<br>NBM coverage begins 24 hours out, so the bot does not trade same-day markets. It declines to price what it cannot price.<br>The inflation bot runs five independent signal sources: Cleveland Fed Nowcast, FRED energy signals, BLS CPI subcomponents, BEA PCE data, and a homemade weighted nowcast. When the models disagree with each other by more than 0.15 percentage points, that disagreement is the trade signal.<br>Learn How It Works →

THE OBJECTION<br>Why Not Just Use a Free Script?<br>Free GitHub bots are single scripts that place an order and hope. Predict & Profit is a maintained system.<br>NO-side and YES-side edge routing, not YES-only<br>Confirmed-fill accounting, so a submitted order is never counted as a filled trade<br>A second bot for CPI and PCE inflation markets, included at no extra cost<br>A six-tab visual dashboard for positions, P&L, scan history, and reconciliation<br>Setup, migration, and self-diagnostic tools, plus real email support<br>Every line of source is yours. No license server. No phoning home.

TRANSPARENCY<br>Every Trade Is Public. Wins and Losses.<br>Results update automatically as contracts settle. I show everything, winners and losers, because transparency is how you build trust. The system has been hardened across three releases with stricter filters, broader forecast inputs, and honest fill accounting.<br>View Live Results →

THE OFFER<br>Choose Your Edge.<br>Use code HOME15 at checkout for 15% off.

Most Popular<br>Full Python Bot v2.5<br>$75<br>›Kalshi Weather Bot<br>›Inflation Bot<br>›Visual Dashboard<br>›Full Python source code<br>›v2.5 NOAA NBM forecast model<br>›Setup and migration tools<br>›No license server<br>›No phoning home<br>›No paid APIs required<br>Get the Source Code

Educational Ebook<br>$9.99<br>Market theory<br>GFS introduction<br>Manual trading strategies<br>Get the Ebook

Already bought? v2.5 is included. Download the latest from your Gumroad library.<br>What changed in v2.5 →

GET IN TOUCH<br>Contact Us.<br>Questions about the bot, the data, or licensing? Send us a message and we will respond within one business day.<br>Website<br>Name *<br>Email *<br>Company (optional)<br>Message *

Send MessageResponse within 24 hours.

Privacy PolicyTerms of ServiceHosted on RackNerd VPS<br>Weather bot: NOAA National Blend of Models station guidance across 20 cities. Inflation bot: five-signal CPI and PCE stack. Both included in the full Python package.<br>Predict & Profit is an educational platform. The software and algorithms provided are for data science and research purposes only. This does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading prediction markets involves significant risk of loss.

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