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List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk

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This is a list of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles made by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, Inc. The predictions concern Tesla's suite of advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) functions, marketed as of December 2025[update] as "Full Self-Driving (Supervised)" ("FSD"), and provide estimates for when Tesla will achieve fully autonomous driving, requiring no human intervention, which SAE considers Level 5 automation. Tesla does not classify FSD according to the SAE levels of autonomy, but has acknowledged that full autonomy is "dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions".[1]

Musk has publicly stated estimated timelines and intended capabilities of the system since at least 2013.[2] FSD and Autopilot are classified as SAE Level 2 ADAS, as of January 2024[update].[1][3] A lawsuit filed in February 2023 by Tesla investors alleging that Musk committed securities fraud by making misleading statements about the development timeline of autonomous Tesla vehicles[4] was dismissed without prejudice in September 2024; the judge ruled that Tesla's legal team successfully argued that Elon Musk's statements were "corporate puffery", i.e., vague corporate optimism.[5]

Elon Musk's predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles<br>DatePredictionQuoteMetReference(s)"}]],"parts":[{"template":{"target":{"wt":"Refh","href":"./Template:Refh"},"params":{},"i":0}}]}'>Ref.

Sep 2013<br>2016<br>"We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years."<br>No<br>[2]

Jun 2014<br>2015<br>"I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exits without touching any controls."<br>No<br>[6]

Oct 2014<br>2015<br>"A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel."<br>{{cite news |url=https://arstechnica.com/cars/2015/10/driving-or-kind-of-not-driving-a-tesla-model-s-with-autopilot/ |title=Driving (or kind of not driving) a Tesla Model S with Autopilot |author=Amadeo, Ron |date=October 14, 2015 |work=Ars Technica |access-date=1 August 2023}}"}},"i":0}}]}'>AP/HW1 released Oct 2015 for highways[7]<br>[8][9]

Oct 2014<br>2023<br>"I think we’ll be able to achieve true autonomous driving, where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination,"<br>No<br>[10]

Oct 2015<br>2018<br>"From a technology standpoint, Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner."<br>No<br>[11]

Dec 2015<br>2018<br>"We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."<br>No<br>[12]

Jan 2016<br>2018<br>"Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey."<br>No<br>[13]

Jun 2016<br>2019<br>"I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. ... We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data."<br>No<br>[14]

Oct 2016<br>Dec 2017<br>"Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger."<br>No<br>[15][16][17]

Apr 2017<br>Dec 2017<br>"November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey."<br>No<br>[18]

May 2017<br>2019<br>"I think [a driver will be able to sleep at the wheel in] about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn't be, certainly."<br>No<br>[19][20]

Feb 2018<br>Aug 2018<br>"I mean, timing-wise, I think we could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in three months, six months at the outside."<br>No<br>[21]

Mar 2018<br>Dec 2019<br>"Self-driving will encompass all modes of driving by the end of next year."<br>No<br>[22]

Nov 2018<br>2019<br>"You know, I think we'll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that's a ... Like we're on track to do that next year. So I don't know....