Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead of Winter » Severe Weather Europe

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Super El Niño continues to strengthen rapidly across the tropical Pacific, with new ocean and atmospheric data showing another acceleration in its development. The latest long-range forecasts have raised the projected peak again, pushing the 2026 event deeper into historic territory later this year.

Behind this rapid growth is an unusually strong combination of westerly winds and subsurface ocean heat. Recent data shows record-level westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, while a powerful Kelvin Wave continues to spread eastward beneath the surface, providing additional warm water that powers the Super El Niño .

In this specialized forecast article, I break down the latest ocean and atmospheric data behind the rapidly growing Super El Niño , including the record westerly wind anomalies and changing long-range forecasts. I also look at how the atmosphere is already responding , and what the latest Fall and Winter 2026/2027 predictions show for the United States , Canada , and Europe .

Super El Niño Dynamics: How Extreme Events Reshape Global Circulation

In the past few months, we have been tracking the growth of a Super El Niño event that is already a major global weather driver for 2026/2027. This Super El Niño is growing rapidly, and with the forecasts constantly adjusting its peak strength higher, we have to monitor its development on a regular basis.

Currently, we have just entered a very strong El Niño phase, so below you can see the usual changes it brings to the atmospheric circulation. The upward and downward atmospheric motion and circulation in the tropical regions is called a Walker Cell , and is especially sensitive to strong ENSO events. Image by ESA.

In simple terms, the El Niño causes a pressure drop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and a high-pressure zone over the western Pacific. This circulation change affects the global atmosphere and significantly influences pressure patterns, winds, rainfall, and the overall seasonal weather system.

While a moderate event produces a mild wave pattern, a Super El Niño triggers a far more aggressive shift in the jet stream. The transition from a Moderate to an Extreme El Niño leads to a deeper Pacific trough and a stronger Canadian ridge, forming an atmospheric highway.

This favors milder conditions in the north while driving an active storm track across the southern United States. The image above is from a study (linked below) that compared pressure anomalies at 5km (3.1miles) during Winter for moderate and strong El Niño events.

Below is my combined analysis image of the last 4 Super El Niño events, showing ocean temperature anomalies. You can see a strong warm anomaly across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This close proximity to North America means direct and strong impacts on the seasonal weather in the United States and Canada in the Northern Hemisphere.

El Niño events happen every few years, but Super events are rare, and usually occur once per decade or less.

But how does an El Niño even reach a “Super” status? To keep it simple, a westerly wind burst can pile up warm water in the western Pacific. This creates a warm oceanic layer at depth known as a Kelvin Wave , raising ocean heat content in the western Pacific, spreading east, and rising to the surface.

The latest analysis data now shows the exact same process unfolding rapidly, but with an energy signature that exceeds most (if not all) previous super events.

Kelvin Wave: Subsurface Heat Drives Rapid El Niño Growth

The latest NOAA CRW ocean analysis below shows the ENSO area covered in substantial warm anomalies. You can see the peak warmth in the eastern parts reaching more than 5 degrees above normal over a large area, peaking at over 6 degrees anomaly. This is an exceptionally strong anomaly for this stage of development, indicating unusually rapid El Niño growth.

The analysis below also shows the 30-day ocean temperature anomaly change. It reveals a broad warming trend as the El Niño is emerging, increasing by more than 1.5 degrees over a very large area. Such a trend marks accelerated growth, with at least 3 months of further development ahead.

The unusually rapid growth can be seen in the latest analysis graph below, for the main ENSO region. This is based on the relative ENSO index, which normalizes the data across past decades, making all El Niño events directly comparable. I produced this plot using BOM weekly data.

As you can see, there has been accelerated El Niño growth and strengthening since Spring. The 2026 event has already surpassed the last Super El Niño event (2015-2016) in speed and strength. It is already not far from the peak strength of the...